Will Andorra win on 2026-11-13?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$22.55
51.9¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$43.73 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48¢ | $690.31 | $690.36 | +$0.05 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51¢ | $556.95 | $600.63 | +$43.68 | |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 51.9¢ | $486.26 | $514.84 | +$28.58 | 42% 286-400 (686) |
 fyrskenCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $342.99 | $335.99 | -$7 | 39% 13-20 (33) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $58.08 | $58.08 | +$0 | 37% 30-51 (81) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $44.84 | $44.84 | +$0 | 40% 438-657 (1095) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $40.92 | $30.03 | +$0.11 | 49% 973-998 (1971) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 50.5¢ | $9.62 | $10.47 | +$0.86 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
Invested
$1,247.26
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$43.73
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Both legs:
Invested
$486.26
Value
$514.84
PnL
+$28.58
Record
42%
286-400 (686)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$342.99
Value
$335.99
PnL
-$7
Record
39%
13-20 (33)
Invested
$58.08
Value
$58.08
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
30-51 (81)
Invested
$44.84
Value
$44.84
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
438-657 (1095)
Invested
$40.92
Value
$30.03
PnL
+$0.11
Record
49%
973-998 (1971)
Invested
$9.62
Value
$10.47
PnL
+$0.86
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.