Albania leading at halftime?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$157.95

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 100¢

+64% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,246

Combined PnL+$474.03

No3 traders

Total Value$0.5

Total Shares993

Combined PnL-$631.98

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 64¢	$668.77	$1.0K	+$375.84	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$35.67	$97.37	+$61.7	40% 3331-4967 (8298)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 80.4¢	$38.4	$47.76	+$9.36	34% 592-1164 (1756)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$9.52	$27.99	+$18.47	47% 1704-1945 (3649)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$2.41	$7.77	+$5.36	32% 565-1192 (1757)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$4.55	$5	+$0.45	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$1.7	$4.55	+$2.85	41% 589-849 (1438)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 73.1¢	$613.34	$0.42	-$612.92	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 9.5¢	$13.85	$0.07	-$13.78	35% 221-416 (637)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$5.28	$0	-$5.28	48% 2298-2502 (4800)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$668.77

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$375.84

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.67

Value

$97.37

PnL

+$61.7

Record

40%

3331-4967 (8298)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.4

Value

$47.76

PnL

+$9.36

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$27.99

PnL

+$18.47

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.41

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$5.36

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$2.85

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$613.34

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$612.92

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$13.85

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.78

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$5.28

Value

PnL

-$5.28

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.