Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Exact Score: FK Kolos Kovalivka 5 - 5 FK Polissia?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 45¢ · $502 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$501.84
$266.57
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yes | $318.17 | $318.17 | +$265.97 | 25% 521-1567 (2088) |
AH aHjCzCTR | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | $141.44 | +$0 | 36% 6093-11041 (17134) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 90.4¢ | $20.1 | $11.11 | -$8.99 | 65% 24597-12971 (37568) |
 SilentShark<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $1 | $11.11 | +$10.11 | 60% 171-115 (286) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $0.57 | $10.02 | +$9.45 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.97 | $9.99 | -$9.98 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
Invested
$318.17
Value
$318.17
PnL
+$265.97
Record
25%
521-1567 (2088)
Invested
$0
Value
$141.44
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
6093-11041 (17134)
Invested
$20.1
Value
$11.11
PnL
-$8.99
Record
65%
24597-12971 (37568)
SilentShark<$100Invested
$1
Value
$11.11
PnL
+$10.11
Record
60%
171-115 (286)
Invested
$0.57
Value
$10.02
PnL
+$9.45
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
$19.97
Value
$9.99
PnL
-$9.98
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.