Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Exact Score: FK Kolos Kovalivka 5 - 4 FK Polissia?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 45¢ · $359 held · ended Nov 1

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$359.08

Combined PnL

$275.12

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$343.53

Total Shares687

Combined PnL+$280.04

No2 traders

Total Value$15.55

Total Shares31

Combined PnL-$4.92

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR	Yes	$319.51	$319.51	+$267.1	25% 521-1567 (2088)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.57	$10.02	+$9.45	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.97	$9.99	-$9.98	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$8.44	+$7.98	36% 6093-11041 (17134)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 90.4¢	$10.05	$5.56	-$4.49	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
SilentShark<$100	Noavg 10¢	$0.5	$5.56	+$5.06	60% 171-115 (286)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR

Yes

Invested

$319.51

Value

$319.51

PnL

+$267.1

Record

25%

521-1567 (2088)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$9.45

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$19.97

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$9.98

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$8.44

PnL

+$7.98

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.05

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$4.49

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

SilentShark<$100

Invested

$0.5

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$5.06

Record

60%

171-115 (286)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.