Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Exact Score: FK Kolos Kovalivka 1 - 0 FK Polissia?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 40¢ · $722 held · ended Nov 1

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$721.73

Combined PnL

$577.64

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$692.47

Total Shares1,539

Combined PnL+$595.72

No1 trader

Total Value$29.25

Total Shares53

Combined PnL-$18.08

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR	Yes	$328.15	$328.15	+$271.98	25% 521-1567 (2088)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 4.7¢	$14.06	$134.64	+$120.58	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
SilentSharkCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.28	$124.6	+$110.48	60% 171-115 (286)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$11.58	$94.84	+$83.26	58% 52330-38533 (90863)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 94¢	$50	$29.25	-$18.08	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.57	$9.02	+$8.45	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$0.26	$1.22	+$0.97	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR

Yes

Invested

$328.15

Value

$328.15

PnL

+$271.98

Record

25%

521-1567 (2088)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$14.06

Value

$134.64

PnL

+$120.58

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

SilentSharkCTR

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$124.6

PnL

+$110.48

Record

60%

171-115 (286)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.58

Value

$94.84

PnL

+$83.26

Record

58%

52330-38533 (90863)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$29.25

PnL

-$18.08

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$9.02

PnL

+$8.45

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.97

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.