Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Exact Score: FK Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 3 FK Polissia?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 40¢ · $640 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$640.03
$399.31
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yes | $391.51 | $391.51 | +$292.05 | 25% 521-1567 (2088) |
 SilentSharkCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $2.83 | $141.44 | +$110.32 | 60% 171-115 (286) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $94.28 | $50 | -$44.28 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $5.28 | $42 | +$36.72 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $0.57 | $10.02 | +$9.45 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 99¢ | $10 | $5.05 | -$4.95 | 65% 24597-12971 (37568) |
Invested
$391.51
Value
$391.51
PnL
+$292.05
Record
25%
521-1567 (2088)
SilentSharkCTRInvested
$2.83
Value
$141.44
PnL
+$110.32
Record
60%
171-115 (286)
Invested
$94.28
Value
$50
PnL
-$44.28
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$42
PnL
+$36.72
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$0.57
Value
$10.02
PnL
+$9.45
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
$10
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$4.95
Record
65%
24597-12971 (37568)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.