Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Fight to Go the Distance?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 0.1¢ · $74K held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 42%

Total Value

$74.0K

Combined PnL

$-25.3K

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$73.3K

Total Shares104,962

Combined PnL+$44.9K

No5 traders

Total Value$655.7

Total Shares98,485

Combined PnL$-70.3K

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
norrisfan	Yesavg 27¢	$24.0K	$68.8K	+$44.8K	— 3-4 (7)
CUTJALENHURTS	Yesavg 27¢	$4.0K	$4.2K	+$150	52% 2680-2503 (5183)
alpheclabs2CTR	Noavg 31.9¢	$783.89	$351.01	-$413.49	45% 356-434 (790)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Yesavg 26.9¢	$235.38	$228.12	-$7.27	48% 435-473 (908)
GA GaditimaCTR	Noavg 76.4¢	$538.1	$226.54	-$311.56	49% 359-370 (729)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$71.68	$67.48	-$0.76	53% 1770-1556 (3326)
RO roscoff<$100	Yesavg 25.6¢	$52.99	$55.96	+$2.97	48% 43-47 (90)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Noavg 72.9¢	$69.6K	$47.72	$-69.5K	51% 3910-3706 (7616)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Yesavg 95.7¢	$30.62	$30.88	+$0.26	58% 3865-2801 (6666)
JE Jest55CTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$27.4	$30.35	+$2.95	10% 2-19 (21)
dips.<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$9.67	$9.82	+$0.15	48% 1236-1313 (2549)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Noavg 9.7¢	$13.59	$0.07	-$13.52	28% 90-227 (317)

norrisfan

Yes

Invested

$23,953.58

Value

$68.8K

PnL

+$44.8K

Record

—

3-4 (7)

CUTJALENHURTS

Yes

Invested

$4,050

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$150

Record

52%

2680-2503 (5183)

alpheclabs2CTR

Invested

$783.89

Value

$351.01

PnL

-$413.49

Record

45%

356-434 (790)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Yes

Invested

$235.38

Value

$228.12

PnL

-$7.27

Record

48%

435-473 (908)

GaditimaCTR

Invested

$538.1

Value

$226.54

PnL

-$311.56

Record

49%

359-370 (729)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.68

Value

$67.48

PnL

-$0.76

Record

53%

1770-1556 (3326)

roscoff<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.99

Value

$55.96

PnL

+$2.97

Record

48%

43-47 (90)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Invested

$69,596.71

Value

$47.72

PnL

$-69.5K

Record

51%

3910-3706 (7616)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.62

Value

$30.88

PnL

+$0.26

Record

58%

3865-2801 (6666)

Jest55CTR<$100

Invested

$27.4

Value

$30.35

PnL

+$2.95

Record

10%

2-19 (21)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.67

Value

$9.82

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

1236-1313 (2549)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Invested

$13.59

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.52

Record

28%

90-227 (317)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.