UFC 334: Josh Hokit vs. Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight, Main Card)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Ciryl Gane (58%) · Ciryl Gane at 68¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Josh Hokit33¢Ciryl Gane67¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ciryl Gane

Consensus Traders

Ciryl Gane 58%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$396.09

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 67.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralCiryl Gane at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ciryl Gane

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Josh Hokit33%

Ciryl Gane68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ciryl Gane7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,362

Combined PnL+$378.92

Josh Hokit5 traders

Total Value$475.05

Total Shares1,465

Combined PnL+$17.18

Ciryl Gane — 58%Josh Hokit — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

89h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Ciryl Gane. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJosh Hokit 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpCiryl Gane 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCiryl Gane 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCiryl Gane 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ciryl Gane 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
4751346	Ciryl Ganeavg 65.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$16.5	73% 1321-500 (1821)
JE Jest55	Ciryl Ganeavg 65.9¢	$790.98	$809.98	+$19	76% 1139-356 (1495)
G.Hchen	Ciryl Ganeavg 67.7¢	$338.5	$339.99	-$2.5	56% 398-307 (705)
CI cigarettesCTR	Josh Hokitavg 33.1¢	$165.44	$160	+$7.5	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
nigiri99CTR	Josh Hokitavg 32.1¢	$140.79	$140.48	+$10.98	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR	Josh Hokitavg 33¢	$119.46	$117.65	-$1.81	51% 364-346 (710)
VeryLucky888	Ciryl Ganeavg 65.7¢	$8.5K	$69.14	+$345.83	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Josh Hokitavg 32¢	$37.65	$38.24	+$0.59	48% 405-446 (851)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Ciryl Ganeavg 68.2¢	$20.44	$20.39	-$0.05	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Josh Hokitavg 32.5¢	$18.77	$18.69	-$0.08	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Ciryl Ganeavg 67¢	$10	$10.15	-$0.07	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Ciryl Ganeavg 66¢	$9.53	$9.75	+$0.22	77% 12942-3921 (16863)

4751346

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$1,003.49

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$16.5

Record

73%

1321-500 (1821)

Jest55

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$790.98

Value

$809.98

PnL

+$19

Record

76%

1139-356 (1495)

G.Hchen

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$338.5

Value

$339.99

PnL

-$2.5

Record

56%

398-307 (705)

cigarettesCTR

Josh Hokit

Invested

$165.44

Value

$160

PnL

+$7.5

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

nigiri99CTR

Josh Hokit

Invested

$140.79

Value

$140.48

PnL

+$10.98

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR

Josh Hokit

Invested

$119.46

Value

$117.65

PnL

-$1.81

Record

51%

364-346 (710)

VeryLucky888

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$8,489.6

Value

$69.14

PnL

+$345.83

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Josh Hokit

Invested

$37.65

Value

$38.24

PnL

+$0.59

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

ameisgoat11<$100

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$20.44

Value

$20.39

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Josh Hokit

Invested

$18.77

Value

$18.69

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$10

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Ciryl Gane

Invested

$9.53

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0.22

Record

77%

12942-3921 (16863)

Research grade

NeutralCiryl Gane at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ciryl Gane

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

89h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Ciryl Gane. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJosh Hokit 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpCiryl Gane 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCiryl Gane 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCiryl Gane 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ciryl Gane 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ciryl Gane wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.