Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 0.5

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $62K held · ends Nov 5

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$62.3K

Combined PnL

$14.8K

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 100¢

+65% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$48.3K

Total Shares49,548

Combined PnL+$14.9K

Over6 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares26,213

Combined PnL-$118.94

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 88.5¢	$17.7K	$19.7K	+$2.0K	73% 2898-1088 (3986)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 43.4¢	$6.8K	$11.5K	+$4.7K	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR	Overavg 57.4¢	$9.6K	$9.6K	+$9.4	64% 244-137 (381)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 39.4¢	$1.9K	$4.8K	+$2.9K	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
RN1	Underavg 48.6¢	$2.8K	$4.0K	+$1.1K	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 35.7¢	$3.1K	$3.6K	+$483.07	50% 27765-27630 (55395)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 38.5¢	$1.1K	$2.5K	+$1.4K	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
ER72SEN	Underavg 82.2¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$75.46	69% 358-161 (519)
VE Venusian	Underavg 24.4¢	$677.64	$2.3K	+$1.6K	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 5¢	$72.31	$701.39	+$629.08	50% 36335-35819 (72154)
WI Winning2...CTR	Overavg 43.2¢	$518.62	$498	-$20.62	33% 1138-2310 (3448)
LI Limousin	Underavg 38.4¢	$113.31	$258.65	+$145.34	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
HI hi774c	Underavg 5¢	$19.72	$191.25	+$171.54	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 51¢	$573.87	$168.64	-$324.02	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 10.2¢	$243.76	$110.28	-$133.48	47% 11071-12407 (23478)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 10.5¢	$22.31	$103.55	+$81.24	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 16.9¢	$147.49	$14.2	-$133.29	49% 14323-15001 (29324)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 89.5¢	$4.47	$4.48	+$0	82% 7015-1513 (8528)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$17,679.67

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

73%

2898-1088 (3986)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$6,814.05

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR

Over

Invested

$9,587.46

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$9.4

Record

64%

244-137 (381)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$1,909.88

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,846.42

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$3,134.91

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$483.07

Record

50%

27765-27630 (55395)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$1,073.08

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

ER72SEN

Under

Invested

$2,216.97

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$75.46

Record

69%

358-161 (519)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$677.64

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$72.31

Value

$701.39

PnL

+$629.08

Record

50%

36335-35819 (72154)

Winning2...CTR

Over

Invested

$518.62

Value

$498

PnL

-$20.62

Record

33%

1138-2310 (3448)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$113.31

Value

$258.65

PnL

+$145.34

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$19.72

Value

$191.25

PnL

+$171.54

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$573.87

Value

$168.64

PnL

-$324.02

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$243.76

Value

$110.28

PnL

-$133.48

Record

47%

11071-12407 (23478)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$22.31

Value

$103.55

PnL

+$81.24

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$147.49

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$133.29

Record

49%

14323-15001 (29324)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$0

Record

82%

7015-1513 (8528)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.