Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Olympiakós SFP: 1st Half O/U 1.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$7.4K
$837.84
73.3¢ → 100¢
+36% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 92¢ | $2.8K | $3.0K | +$129.25 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 63.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.7K | +$748.45 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 61¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$196.77 | 50% 36335-35819 (72154) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 64¢ | $498.2 | $496.6 | +$145.92 | 48% 59237-63255 (122492) |
DA dashattacker<$100 | Underavg 96.2¢ | $78.67 | $78.92 | +$0.25 | 73% 2898-1088 (3986) |
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $21.74 | $35.1 | +$13.37 | 33% 1147-2277 (3424) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $23.46 | $19.81 | -$3.65 | 55% 1303-1085 (2388) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $2.94 | $3.97 | +$1.02 | 50% 25481-25189 (50670) |
RN1Invested
$2,827.82
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$129.25
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
Invested
$1,985.58
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$748.45
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Invested
$1,261.09
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$196.77
Record
50%
36335-35819 (72154)
Invested
$498.2
Value
$496.6
PnL
+$145.92
Record
48%
59237-63255 (122492)
Invested
$78.67
Value
$78.92
PnL
+$0.25
Record
73%
2898-1088 (3986)
Invested
$21.74
Value
$35.1
PnL
+$13.37
Record
33%
1147-2277 (3424)
Invested
$23.46
Value
$19.81
PnL
-$3.65
Record
55%
1303-1085 (2388)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$3.97
PnL
+$1.02
Record
50%
25481-25189 (50670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.