Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Olympiakós SFP: Both Teams to Score
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 95¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 82%
$4.3K
$8.76
68.8¢ → 95¢
+38% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 64.1¢ | $2.6K | $3.0K | +$427.51 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
 RN1 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $574.25 | $694.69 | +$120.44 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
PE pelik | Noavg 99.9¢ | $237.79 | $226.13 | -$11.66 | 99% 4688-63 (4751) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.8¢ | $169.3 | $171.5 | +$2.2 | 50% 36339-35820 (72159) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 39.3¢ | $26.6 | $64.3 | +$37.7 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $18.06 | $42.88 | +$24.83 | 53% 16518-14663 (31181) |
WI Winning2...CTR | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $630.24 | $38 | -$592.24 | 33% 1139-2311 (3450) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $25.71 | $25.69 | -$0.01 | 47% 11082-12418 (23500) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 41.2¢ | $4.12 | $9.5 | +$5.38 | 52% 1162-1079 (2241) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $2.13 | $4.83 | -$0.03 | 49% 14327-15003 (29330) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.2¢ | $5.59 | $0.23 | -$5.36 | 50% 20743-20989 (41732) |
Invested
$2,611.15
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$427.51
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
RN1Invested
$574.25
Value
$694.69
PnL
+$120.44
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
Invested
$237.79
Value
$226.13
PnL
-$11.66
Record
99%
4688-63 (4751)
Invested
$169.3
Value
$171.5
PnL
+$2.2
Record
50%
36339-35820 (72159)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$26.6
Value
$64.3
PnL
+$37.7
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$18.06
Value
$42.88
PnL
+$24.83
Record
53%
16518-14663 (31181)
Invested
$630.24
Value
$38
PnL
-$592.24
Record
33%
1139-2311 (3450)
Invested
$25.71
Value
$25.69
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
11082-12418 (23500)
Invested
$4.12
Value
$9.5
PnL
+$5.38
Record
52%
1162-1079 (2241)
Invested
$2.13
Value
$4.83
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
14327-15003 (29330)
Invested
$5.59
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$5.36
Record
50%
20743-20989 (41732)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.