Will AZ win on 2026-11-05?

23 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold No (72%) · No at 98¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 5

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 72%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 98.4¢

+26% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

23 of 32 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No23 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares18,069

Combined PnL+$194.35

Yes9 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares14,362

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No — 72%Yes — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XW xwingboy	Noavg 74¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$101.75	66% 336-175 (511)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$2.39	64% 9969-5596 (15565)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.8¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$38.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$41.11
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$15.02	64% 9927-5528 (15455)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$27.82
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$42.84
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 76¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$0	67% 2798-1381 (4179)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 24.7¢	$3.5K	$2.0K	$-1.5K	51% 25751-24453 (50204)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 72.5¢	$3.3K	$1.9K	+$42.61	58% 46694-33653 (80347)
oieshfn345	Noavg 81¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$150.3	57% 2031-1503 (3534)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0.64	53% 16808-14936 (31744)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.7¢	$745.12	$753.01	+$7.89
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.1¢	$384.85	$376.33	-$8.52
38 38791873984189	Noavg 77.3¢	$481.88	$515.19	+$74.33	48% 61176-65982 (127158)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 88¢	$446.88	$491.45	+$44.56	61% 14366-9289 (23655)
BA BayupatiCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$602.65	$481.65	-$121	49% 259-272 (531)
RN1	Noavg 98.2¢	$471.26	$453.71	-$17.55	53% 61368-53685 (115053)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 93.6¢	$425.12	$446.48	+$21.35	52% 1376-1291 (2667)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$435.12	$412.5	-$22.62	51% 1900-1851 (3751)
FaroeseNationalistCTR	Yesavg 26.3¢	$307.45	$321.68	+$14.23	50% 545-553 (1098)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 94.2¢	$239.85	$249.38	+$9.53	50% 1324-1301 (2625)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 92.9¢	$252.52	$230.3	-$22.22	46% 1539-1814 (3353)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.1¢	$223.24	$220.69	-$2.55	51% 37668-36894 (74562)
LI Limousin	Noavg 90.5¢	$214	$211.76	-$2.25	53% 1423-1266 (2689)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 89.5¢	$230.12	$208	-$22.11	52% 14491-13182 (27673)
AF afrazCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$208.86	$198	-$10.86	58% 181-130 (311)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 87.6¢	$284.43	$155.7	-$4.81	55% 9738-8127 (17865)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$108	$110	+$2	56% 7915-6323 (14238)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 75¢	$75	$98.45	+$23.45	34% 19169-36810 (55979)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$66.14	$61.19	-$4.95	50% 21174-21437 (42611)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,067.5

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$101.75

Record

66%

336-175 (511)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$3,283.83

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$2.39

Record

64%

9969-5596 (15565)

Both legs:

No$2,171.1373.8¢-$38.72

Yes$1,112.726.5¢+$41.11

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$2,862.03

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$15.02

Record

64%

9927-5528 (15455)

Both legs:

No$1,834.1273.6¢-$27.82

Yes$1,027.9126.4¢+$42.84

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,279.98

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

67%

2798-1381 (4179)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,470.07

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

25751-24453 (50204)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$3,342.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$42.61

Record

58%

46694-33653 (80347)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,623.24

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$150.3

Record

57%

2031-1503 (3534)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$1,129.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0.64

Record

53%

16808-14936 (31744)

Both legs:

No$745.1273.7¢+$7.89

Yes$384.8526.1¢-$8.52

38791873984189

Invested

$481.88

Value

$515.19

PnL

+$74.33

Record

48%

61176-65982 (127158)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$446.88

Value

$491.45

PnL

+$44.56

Record

61%

14366-9289 (23655)

BayupatiCTR

Yes

Invested

$602.65

Value

$481.65

PnL

-$121

Record

49%

259-272 (531)

RN1

Invested

$471.26

Value

$453.71

PnL

-$17.55

Record

53%

61368-53685 (115053)

LightParadox

Invested

$425.12

Value

$446.48

PnL

+$21.35

Record

52%

1376-1291 (2667)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$435.12

Value

$412.5

PnL

-$22.62

Record

51%

1900-1851 (3751)

FaroeseNationalistCTR

Yes

Invested

$307.45

Value

$321.68

PnL

+$14.23

Record

50%

545-553 (1098)

MadridTime

Invested

$239.85

Value

$249.38

PnL

+$9.53

Record

50%

1324-1301 (2625)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$252.52

Value

$230.3

PnL

-$22.22

Record

46%

1539-1814 (3353)

SnakeBall

Invested

$223.24

Value

$220.69

PnL

-$2.55

Record

51%

37668-36894 (74562)

Limousin

Invested

$214

Value

$211.76

PnL

-$2.25

Record

53%

1423-1266 (2689)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$230.12

Value

$208

PnL

-$22.11

Record

52%

14491-13182 (27673)

afrazCTR

Yes

Invested

$208.86

Value

$198

PnL

-$10.86

Record

58%

181-130 (311)

Pan9X

Invested

$284.43

Value

$155.7

PnL

-$4.81

Record

55%

9738-8127 (17865)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$108

Value

$110

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

7915-6323 (14238)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$75

Value

$98.45

PnL

+$23.45

Record

34%

19169-36810 (55979)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$66.14

Value

$61.19

PnL

-$4.95

Record

50%

21174-21437 (42611)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

23 of 32 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.