Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Villarreal CF (70%) · Villarreal CF at 67¢ · $183K held · ends Nov 3

Paris Saint-Germain FC34¢Villarreal CF66¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Villarreal CF

Consensus Traders

Villarreal CF 70%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$183.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 66.5¢

+0% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralVillarreal CF at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Villarreal CF

14 of 20 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Paris Saint-Germain FC34%

Villarreal CF67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Villarreal CF14 traders

Total Value$118.9K

Total Shares177,326

Combined PnL+$349.77

Paris Saint-Germain FC6 traders

Total Value$55.5K

Total Shares168,312

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Villarreal CF — 70%Paris Saint-Germain FC — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Villarreal CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Paris Saint-Germain FC) and the top 1000 (17 on Villarreal CF) disagree here.

whaleVillarreal CF 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpParis Saint-Germain FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVillarreal CF 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedParis Saint-Germain FC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Villarreal CF 53% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Villarreal CFavg 67.1¢	$87.9K	$87.8K	-$126.61	46% 8227-9596 (17823)
SI sinasinnerCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 34.1¢	$51.2K	$49.5K	$-1.7K	49% 36-38 (74)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Villarreal CFavg 66.6¢	$18.6K	$18.7K	+$112.6	48% 276-299 (575)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Villarreal CFavg 65.8¢	$8.6K	$8.8K	+$25.39	51% 23358-22138 (45496)
└ Villarreal CF leg	Villarreal CFavg 65.8¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$67.31
└ Paris Saint-Germain FC leg	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 33¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$41.92
LI LightParadox	Villarreal CFavg 63.6¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$143.62	53% 883-772 (1655)
LI Limousin	Villarreal CFavg 66.8¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$8.66	56% 921-721 (1642)
MA MadridTime	Villarreal CFavg 64¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$119.28	52% 812-758 (1570)
HI hi774c	Villarreal CFavg 66¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$36.11	50% 4912-4828 (9740)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 36.8¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$259.77	64% 1844-1024 (2868)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 33.9¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$56.56	71% 6980-2790 (9770)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 33.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$44.47	50% 27241-27150 (54391)
VE Venusian	Villarreal CFavg 63.6¢	$1.0K	$912.51	+$36.2	53% 898-794 (1692)
SN SnakeBall	Villarreal CFavg 66¢	$146.46	$146.57	+$0.27	50% 35553-35054 (70607)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 35.1¢	$475.58	$135.02	-$11.7	48% 14349-15848 (30197)
└ Paris Saint-Germain FC leg	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 35.1¢	$82.37	$77.4	+$11.28
└ Villarreal CF leg	Villarreal CFavg 66¢	$56.76	$57.62	-$22.98
CA Cannae	Villarreal CFavg 66¢	$121.43	$123.27	+$1.84	53% 16374-14542 (30916)
leflaiveCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 38¢	$114	$99	-$16.5	42% 1205-1642 (2847)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Villarreal CFavg 66¢	$84.02	$85.29	+$1.27	51% 1713-1638 (3351)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Villarreal CFavg 64.4¢	$211.36	$83.99	+$1.83	58% 18458-13639 (32097)
└ Villarreal CF leg	Villarreal CFavg 64.4¢	$59.29	$61.2	+$1.7
└ Paris Saint-Germain FC leg	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 34.7¢	$23.57	$22.78	+$0.13
DV dv-pm<$100	Villarreal CFavg 62¢	$43.74	$27	+$1.35	49% 3260-3352 (6612)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Villarreal CFavg 61.5¢	$9.5	$9.9	+$0.5	52% 8430-7691 (16121)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 34¢	$9.69	$9.41	-$0.43	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
SU suntori<$100	Villarreal CFavg 68.1¢	$7.25	$6.77	-$0.48	45% 13599-16524 (30123)
VeryLucky888	Villarreal CFavg 61.9¢	$499.12	$2.3	+$15.17	58% 44520-32419 (76939)

nigiri99

Villarreal CF

Invested

$87,909.34

Value

$87.8K

PnL

-$126.61

Record

46%

8227-9596 (17823)

sinasinnerCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$51,206.3

Value

$49.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

49%

36-38 (74)

Multicoloured-Serf

Villarreal CF

Invested

$18,585.79

Value

$18.7K

PnL

+$112.6

Record

48%

276-299 (575)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$8,619.57

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$25.39

Record

51%

23358-22138 (45496)

Both legs:

Villarreal CF$6,199.1965.8¢+$67.31

Paris Saint-Germain FC$2,458.9733¢-$41.92

LightParadox

Villarreal CF

Invested

$3,166.07

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$143.62

Record

53%

883-772 (1655)

Limousin

Villarreal CF

Invested

$2,716.9

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$8.66

Record

56%

921-721 (1642)

MadridTime

Villarreal CF

Invested

$2,524.71

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$119.28

Record

52%

812-758 (1570)

hi774c

Villarreal CF

Invested

$2,383.21

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$36.11

Record

50%

4912-4828 (9740)

darkumbreon88CTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$2,541.62

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$259.77

Record

64%

1844-1024 (2868)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$2,152.72

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$56.56

Record

71%

6980-2790 (9770)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$1,601.1

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$44.47

Record

50%

27241-27150 (54391)

Venusian

Villarreal CF

Invested

$1,016.72

Value

$912.51

PnL

+$36.2

Record

53%

898-794 (1692)

SnakeBall

Villarreal CF

Invested

$146.46

Value

$146.57

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

35553-35054 (70607)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$475.58

Value

$135.02

PnL

-$11.7

Record

48%

14349-15848 (30197)

Both legs:

Paris Saint-Germain FC$82.3735.1¢+$11.28

Villarreal CF$56.7666¢-$22.98

Cannae

Villarreal CF

Invested

$121.43

Value

$123.27

PnL

+$1.84

Record

53%

16374-14542 (30916)

leflaiveCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$114

Value

$99

PnL

-$16.5

Record

42%

1205-1642 (2847)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$84.02

Value

$85.29

PnL

+$1.27

Record

51%

1713-1638 (3351)

ghorrockARB<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$211.36

Value

$83.99

PnL

+$1.83

Record

58%

18458-13639 (32097)

Both legs:

Villarreal CF$59.2964.4¢+$1.7

Paris Saint-Germain FC$23.5734.7¢+$0.13

dv-pm<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$43.74

Value

$27

PnL

+$1.35

Record

49%

3260-3352 (6612)

ameisgoat11<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

8430-7691 (16121)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$9.69

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$0.43

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

suntori<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$7.25

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$0.48

Record

45%

13599-16524 (30123)

VeryLucky888

Villarreal CF

Invested

$499.12

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$15.17

Record

58%

44520-32419 (76939)

Research grade

NeutralVillarreal CF at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Villarreal CF

14 of 20 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Villarreal CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Paris Saint-Germain FC) and the top 1000 (17 on Villarreal CF) disagree here.

whaleVillarreal CF 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpParis Saint-Germain FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVillarreal CF 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedParis Saint-Germain FC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Villarreal CF 53% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Villarreal CF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.