Villarreal CF vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 70¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 3

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$533.54

Smart Money Entry

67.3¢ → 69.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 18 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares8,592

Combined PnL+$667.17

No10 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares7,290

Combined PnL-$133.64

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 67.4¢	$5.0K	$5.7K	+$671.84	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
nigiri99CTR	Noavg 32.5¢	$1.0K	$936.63	-$94.55	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 66.1¢	$897.41	$745.84	+$29.92	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.1¢	$510.14	$536.18	+$26.04
└ No leg	Noavg 31.3¢	$215.14	$209.65	+$3.88
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Yesavg 66¢	$660	$655	-$5	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 34.1¢	$507.15	$475.84	-$31.31	56% 942-736 (1678)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 35¢	$428.08	$421.68	-$6.4	54% 906-787 (1693)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 35.7¢	$193.23	$189.61	-$3.62	53% 916-813 (1729)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 33.6¢	$175.05	$174.08	-$0.78	52% 830-771 (1601)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Yesavg 70.1¢	$126.31	$121.32	-$4.99	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.1¢	$91.86	$88.49	-$3.37
└ No leg	Noavg 34.1¢	$34.45	$32.83	-$1.62
RN1<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$70.35	$71.55	+$1.2	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 30.1¢	$61.14	$63.54	+$2.4	53% 16384-14558 (30942)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$49.5	$52.5	+$3	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 68.8¢	$52.45	$51.48	-$0.97	64% 1845-1027 (2872)
0xheavy888<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$8.19	$8.31	+$0.12	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 30.6¢	$10.74	$8.24	-$2.49	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$6.43	$6.54	+$0.11	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$6.21	$6.21	+$0.05	50% 7347-7479 (14826)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 69.1¢	$6.22	$6.12	-$0.1	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$5.39	$5.39	+$0	50% 25247-24961 (50208)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$4.56	$4.59	+$0.03	53% 2336-2055 (4391)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$4,991.27

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$671.84

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

nigiri99CTR

Invested

$1,031.17

Value

$936.63

PnL

-$94.55

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$897.41

Value

$745.84

PnL

+$29.92

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Both legs:

Yes$510.1466.1¢+$26.04

No$215.1431.3¢+$3.88

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Yes

Invested

$660

Value

$655

PnL

-$5

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$507.15

Value

$475.84

PnL

-$31.31

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$428.08

Value

$421.68

PnL

-$6.4

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$193.23

Value

$189.61

PnL

-$3.62

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$175.05

Value

$174.08

PnL

-$0.78

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

suntoriARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$126.31

Value

$121.32

PnL

-$4.99

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

Both legs:

Invested

$70.35

Value

$71.55

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$61.14

Value

$63.54

PnL

+$2.4

Record

53%

16384-14558 (30942)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$49.5

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$3

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.45

Value

$51.48

PnL

-$0.97

Record

64%

1845-1027 (2872)

0xheavy888<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.19

Value

$8.31

PnL

+$0.12

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$10.74

Value

$8.24

PnL

-$2.49

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$6.43

Value

$6.54

PnL

+$0.11

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

Forecastication2<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.21

Value

$6.21

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

7347-7479 (14826)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.22

Value

$6.12

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$5.39

Value

$5.39

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25247-24961 (50208)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.59

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 18 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.