Will Sporting CP win on 2026-11-03?

4 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 53¢ · $61K held · ends Nov 3

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$60.7K

Combined PnL

$147.6

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 20 top traders (20%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$35.3K

Total Shares66,142

Combined PnL+$562.52

Yes16 traders

Total Value$25.4K

Total Shares51,781

Combined PnL-$414.92

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradona	Noavg 52.9¢	$30.7K	$31.0K	+$360.12	56% 14-11 (25)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 47.1¢	$10.5K	$5.2K	-$46.48	51% 23122-21932 (45054)
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$255.09	54% 86-72 (158)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 47.1¢	$5.8K	$4.7K	+$15.34	58% 44321-32237 (76558)
SU surfandturf	Noavg 51¢	$4.1K	$4.3K	+$200.86	50% 316-315 (631)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 47.3¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$23.2	71% 6971-2782 (9753)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	-$30.05	50% 27012-26932 (53944)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Yesavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	53% 5805-5161 (10966)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$959.99	$939.99	-$30	52% 1273-1166 (2439)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$356.06	$356.41	+$0.09	53% 16351-14528 (30879)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 47¢	$212.44	$214.7	+$2.26	46% 8192-9550 (17742)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 47¢	$137.51	$122.01	+$1.64	57% 17814-13331 (31145)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 66.1¢	$166.79	$117.28	-$49.51	48% 6864-7497 (14361)
leflaiveCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$96	$94	+$1	42% 1202-1640 (2842)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$51.53	$51.53	-$0.55	50% 25182-24891 (50073)
claudionetotrader<$100	Noavg 52¢	$25	$25.48	+$0.72	56% 1346-1066 (2412)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$19.03	$19.68	+$0.81	51% 7181-6940 (14121)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$5.68	$5.39	-$0.29	48% 6030-6454 (12484)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$2.85	$2.82	-$0.03	45% 13396-16320 (29716)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.35	-$0.05	52% 8395-7670 (16065)

hovistomaradona

Invested

$30,683.12

Value

$31.0K

PnL

+$360.12

Record

56%

14-11 (25)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,489.96

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$46.48

Record

51%

23122-21932 (45054)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$255.09

Record

54%

86-72 (158)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,757.59

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$15.34

Record

58%

44321-32237 (76558)

surfandturf

Invested

$4,097.64

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$200.86

Record

50%

316-315 (631)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,771.69

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$23.2

Record

71%

6971-2782 (9753)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,526.69

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$30.05

Record

50%

27012-26932 (53944)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,410

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5805-5161 (10966)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR

Yes

Invested

$959.99

Value

$939.99

PnL

-$30

Record

52%

1273-1166 (2439)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$356.06

Value

$356.41

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

16351-14528 (30879)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$212.44

Value

$214.7

PnL

+$2.26

Record

46%

8192-9550 (17742)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$137.51

Value

$122.01

PnL

+$1.64

Record

57%

17814-13331 (31145)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$166.79

Value

$117.28

PnL

-$49.51

Record

48%

6864-7497 (14361)

leflaiveCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96

Value

$94

PnL

+$1

Record

42%

1202-1640 (2842)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.53

Value

$51.53

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

25182-24891 (50073)

claudionetotrader<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$25.48

PnL

+$0.72

Record

56%

1346-1066 (2412)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$19.03

Value

$19.68

PnL

+$0.81

Record

51%

7181-6940 (14121)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.68

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$0.29

Record

48%

6030-6454 (12484)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

45%

13396-16320 (29716)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

8395-7670 (16065)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 20 top traders (20%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.