Will FC Porto vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?

17 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 64¢ · $60K held · ended Nov 4

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$60.2K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 63.5¢

-14% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 64%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 27 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$37.8K

Total Shares50,982

Combined PnL-$551.1

Yes10 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares42,693

Combined PnL+$3.0K

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 73.9¢	$19.8K	$19.8K	+$36.45	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
AN analdesutructor	Noavg 71.9¢	$5.9K	$6.4K	+$462.51	52% 175-161 (336)
ZaiZoiBeleARB<$100	Noavg 89¢	$6.7K	$5.7K	$-1.0K	80% 5236-1333 (6569)
└ No leg	Noavg 89¢	$5.1K	$4.4K	-$651.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$369.72
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 26.8¢	$4.1K	$5.6K	+$1.5K	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 76.5¢	$6.0K	$5.2K	-$824.39	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 31.5¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$35.62	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.5¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$155.36
└ No leg	Noavg 80.7¢	$952.97	$761.98	-$190.99
RN1	Noavg 67¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$14.39	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 75¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$26	65% 322-173 (495)
MI MinevaJCTR	Yesavg 12.6¢	$808.61	$1.9K	+$1.3K	56% 1117-870 (1987)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 72.8¢	$2.6K	$1.7K	-$174.98	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 27.7¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$259.95	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$135.83	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 26.9¢	$1.3K	$903.21	-$374.97	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
WI Winning2...CTR	Yesavg 20.3¢	$634.62	$813.28	+$178.66	33% 1139-2311 (3450)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$1.9K	$613.22	-$0.22	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 32.5¢	$552.19	$567.41	+$15.22	58% 1993-1472 (3465)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$420.76	$411.21	-$9.55	52% 14229-13002 (27231)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.7¢	$311.56	$261.85	-$49.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26¢	$109.21	$149.36	+$40.15
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$371.89	$387.97	+$16.08	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.5¢	$231.16	$245.31	+$14.15
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$140.74	$142.67	+$1.93
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$384.89	$357.59	-$27.31	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 74¢	$296	$296	+$0	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$255.82	$269.8	+$13.98	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 75.2¢	$110.24	$97.5	-$12.74	61% 14037-9041 (23078)
HI hi774c<$100	Noavg 73¢	$80.84	$81.95	+$1.11	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74¢	$76.94	$29.34	+$0.2	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 74¢	$28.46	$28.46	+$0.19	50% 36339-35820 (72159)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$19,761.37

Value

$19.8K

PnL

+$36.45

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

analdesutructor

Invested

$5,942.87

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$462.51

Record

52%

175-161 (336)

ZaiZoiBeleARB<$100

Invested

$6,712.68

Value

$5.7K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

80%

5236-1333 (6569)

Both legs:

No$5,063.1689¢-$651.9

Yes$1,649.5229¢-$369.72

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,088.63

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$6,004.65

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$824.39

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,167.98

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$35.62

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Both legs:

Yes$1,215.0131.5¢+$155.36

No$952.9780.7¢-$190.99

RN1

Invested

$2,068.45

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$14.39

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

xwingboy

Invested

$2,026

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$26

Record

65%

322-173 (495)

MinevaJCTR

Yes

Invested

$808.61

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

56%

1117-870 (1987)

38791873984189

Invested

$2,556

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$174.98

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,254.25

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$259.95

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,174.07

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$135.83

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,278.19

Value

$903.21

PnL

-$374.97

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

Winning2...CTR

Yes

Invested

$634.62

Value

$813.28

PnL

+$178.66

Record

33%

1139-2311 (3450)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,900.64

Value

$613.22

PnL

-$0.22

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$552.19

Value

$567.41

PnL

+$15.22

Record

58%

1993-1472 (3465)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$420.76

Value

$411.21

PnL

-$9.55

Record

52%

14229-13002 (27231)

Both legs:

No$311.5676.7¢-$49.71

Yes$109.2126¢+$40.15

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$371.89

Value

$387.97

PnL

+$16.08

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Both legs:

Yes$231.1624.5¢+$14.15

No$140.7473¢+$1.93

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$384.89

Value

$357.59

PnL

-$27.31

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$296

Value

$296

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$255.82

Value

$269.8

PnL

+$13.98

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$110.24

Value

$97.5

PnL

-$12.74

Record

61%

14037-9041 (23078)

hi774c<$100

Invested

$80.84

Value

$81.95

PnL

+$1.11

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$76.94

Value

$29.34

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$28.46

Value

$28.46

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 64%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 27 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.