Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold SSC Napoli (83%) · SSC Napoli at 87¢ · $26K held · ended Sep 9
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Neutral
SSC Napoli
6
SSC Napoli 83%
$26.2K
$25.4K
87.4¢ → 86.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSSC Napoli at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on SSC Napoli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | SSC Napoliavg 87.4¢ | $22.3K | $22.0K | +$25.1K | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
UP UpTheBlues | SSC Napoliavg 86.5¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$57.62 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | SSC Napoliavg 86¢ | $298.35 | $300.09 | +$1.73 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | SSC Napoliavg 93.6¢ | $3.4K | $262.21 | +$182.42 | 56% 8738-6795 (15533) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | SSC Napoliavg 86.9¢ | $89.57 | $69.78 | -$1.16 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Arsenal FCavg 6.9¢ | $510.01 | $21.21 | +$33.2 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
Invested
$22,270.86
Value
$22.0K
PnL
+$25.1K
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$3,480.88
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$57.62
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$298.35
Value
$300.09
PnL
+$1.73
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$3,366.24
Value
$262.21
PnL
+$182.42
Record
56%
8738-6795 (15533)
Invested
$89.57
Value
$69.78
PnL
-$1.16
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$510.01
Value
$21.21
PnL
+$33.2
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.