Manchester United FC vs. AS Roma: Manchester United FC O/U 0.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 84¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 3

Over84¢Under16¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$344.54

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 83.5¢

-15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,446

Combined PnL-$368.98

Under3 traders

Total Value$468.06

Total Shares2,837

Combined PnL+$24.45

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$369.91	98% 14081-250 (14331)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 84.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$130.14	56% 7690-6106 (13796)
└ Over leg	Overavg 84.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$18.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 22.8¢	$406.41	$294.55	-$111.86
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 15.6¢	$290.45	$306.47	+$16.02	52% 992-931 (1923)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 15.6¢	$152.22	$160.61	+$8.4	54% 1090-911 (2001)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 82¢	$133.34	$135.78	+$1.63	51% 23549-22308 (45857)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 90¢	$18	$16.7	-$1.3	47% 10701-12047 (22748)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 76.3¢	$6.5	$7.09	+$0.6	50% 35778-35246 (71024)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$0.95	$0.98	+$0.03	49% 14175-14774 (28949)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$2,253.27

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$369.91

Record

98%

14081-250 (14331)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,580.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$130.14

Record

56%

7690-6106 (13796)

Both legs:

Over$1,174.3584.8¢-$18.28

Under$406.4122.8¢-$111.86

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$290.45

Value

$306.47

PnL

+$16.02

Record

52%

992-931 (1923)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$152.22

Value

$160.61

PnL

+$8.4

Record

54%

1090-911 (2001)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$133.34

Value

$135.78

PnL

+$1.63

Record

51%

23549-22308 (45857)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$18

Value

$16.7

PnL

-$1.3

Record

47%

10701-12047 (22748)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$6.5

Value

$7.09

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

35778-35246 (71024)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

14175-14774 (28949)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.