Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 6.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 3

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$7.94

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 99.6¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,444

Combined PnL+$6.25

Over5 traders

Total Value$47.51

Total Shares1,280

Combined PnL+$1.69

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 96.2¢	$643.82	$647.39	+$3.57	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 94¢	$324.3	$324.3	-$0	52% 830-771 (1601)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 94¢	$239.83	$234.26	+$0.24	54% 906-787 (1693)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 97.5¢	$117.91	$119.79	+$1.88	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 93¢	$37.6	$38	+$0.4	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 3.6¢	$22.41	$23.34	+$0.93	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$15.3	$16.57	+$1.27	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 93¢	$14.16	$14.32	+$0.15	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 4.4¢	$4.4	$4.25	-$0.15	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$2.59	$2.43	-$0.16	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 7.3¢	$1.12	$0.91	-$0.2	45% 13648-16581 (30229)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$643.82

Value

$647.39

PnL

+$3.57

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$324.3

Value

$324.3

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$239.83

Value

$234.26

PnL

+$0.24

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$117.91

Value

$119.79

PnL

+$1.88

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$37.6

Value

$38

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.41

Value

$23.34

PnL

+$0.93

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.3

Value

$16.57

PnL

+$1.27

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$14.16

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.12

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.2

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.