Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Fenerbahçe SK vs. AS Roma: Draw at halftime?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 47¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$4.3K
$-1.6K
60.7¢ → 46.5¢
-23% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 77¢ | $2.3K | $1.4K | -$907.48 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 94.2¢ | $2.2K | $1.3K | -$849.63 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 66.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.0K | -$429.76 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $1.1K | $503.99 | +$513.02 | 56% 8738-6795 (15533) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 43¢ | $244.91 | $32.3 | +$115.27 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
RN1CTRInvested
$2,348.77
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$907.48
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$2,156.62
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$849.63
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$1,551.81
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$429.76
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$1,082.22
Value
$503.99
PnL
+$513.02
Record
56%
8738-6795 (15533)
Invested
$244.91
Value
$32.3
PnL
+$115.27
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.