FC Barcelona vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (92%) · Over at 100¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 3

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 92%

Total Value

$21.7K

Combined PnL

$207.66

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$21.7K

Total Shares21,739

Combined PnL+$207.6

Under1 trader

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares17

Combined PnL+$0.05

Over — 92%Under — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 98.7¢	$15.8K	$16.0K	+$198.82	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 98.5¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$2.81	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 98.8¢	$988	$988.5	+$0.5	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 98.6¢	$999.48	$906.89	+$5.42	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$354.37	$354.54	+$0.18	98% 13990-239 (14229)
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 99¢	$297.09	$296.25	-$0.84	47% 3204-3579 (6783)
FE ferdinand2	Overavg 98.8¢	$148.2	$148.13	-$0.15	48% 6154-6562 (12716)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 98.6¢	$89.37	$89.56	+$0.19	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
RN1<$100	Overavg 98.2¢	$83.49	$84.17	+$0.68	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 98.7¢	$27.44	$27.42	-$0.02	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 98.8¢	$22.23	$22.22	-$0.02	53% 916-813 (1729)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 98.5¢	$10.92	$10.96	+$0.04	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100	Under	$0.19	$0.19	+$0.05	69% 464-208 (672)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$15,778.18

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$198.82

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,763

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$2.81

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$988

Value

$988.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$999.48

Value

$906.89

PnL

+$5.42

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$354.37

Value

$354.54

PnL

+$0.18

Record

98%

13990-239 (14229)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$297.09

Value

$296.25

PnL

-$0.84

Record

47%

3204-3579 (6783)

ferdinand2

Over

Invested

$148.2

Value

$148.13

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

6154-6562 (12716)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$89.37

Value

$89.56

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$83.49

Value

$84.17

PnL

+$0.68

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$27.44

Value

$27.42

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$22.23

Value

$22.22

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$10.92

Value

$10.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

canupdatelateronCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.05

Record

69%

464-208 (672)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.