Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Aston Villa FC, while the market favors FC Barcelona (57%). 10 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)
10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Aston Villa FC (53%) · Aston Villa FC at 43¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Aston Villa FC
19
Aston Villa FC 53%
$6.8K
$60.52
42.1¢ → 43¢
+2% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralAston Villa FC at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 19 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors FC Barcelona 57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Aston Villa FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | FC Barcelonaavg 57.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | -$31.09 | 71% 6976-2782 (9758) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Aston Villa FCavg 41.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$39.47 | 47% 262-290 (552) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Aston Villa FCavg 42.8¢ | $918.77 | $944.68 | +$25.91 | — |
DA darkumbreon88 | FC Barcelonaavg 58¢ | $908.5 | $513.3 | -$13.5 | 64% 1842-1020 (2862) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Aston Villa FCavg 42¢ | $1.1K | $468.71 | +$16.16 | 53% 810-720 (1530) |
 leflaive | FC Barcelonaavg 58¢ | $323.64 | $312.48 | -$11.16 | 42% 1204-1640 (2844) |
HI hi774cCTR | Aston Villa FCavg 42¢ | $716.1 | $311.51 | +$10.74 | 50% 4906-4825 (9731) |
VE VenusianCTR | Aston Villa FCavg 42¢ | $653.5 | $284.27 | +$9.8 | 52% 809-738 (1547) |
LI LimousinCTR | Aston Villa FCavg 42.1¢ | $207.88 | $214.89 | +$7.01 | 55% 827-679 (1506) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Aston Villa FCavg 42¢ | $168 | $176 | +$8 | 48% 14253-15743 (29996) |
 noosh3 | FC Barcelonaavg 59.9¢ | $100 | $93.49 | -$1.5 | 52% 295-273 (568) |
SU suntori<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 58.7¢ | $84.2 | $80.38 | -$3.81 | 45% 13461-16377 (29838) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Aston Villa FCavg 41.3¢ | $64.3 | $66.91 | +$2.61 | 53% 16356-14530 (30886) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Aston Villa FCavg 40.9¢ | $36.35 | $35.66 | +$2.64 | 57% 17871-13366 (31237) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 56¢ | $25.45 | $25.91 | +$0.45 | 51% 23180-22031 (45211) |
 nigiri99<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 61¢ | $18.91 | $17.52 | -$1.39 | 46% 8203-9568 (17771) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Aston Villa FCavg 40.8¢ | $8.42 | $8.77 | +$0.35 | 50% 25200-24902 (50102) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $2.8 | -$0.1 | 52% 8412-7681 (16093) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | FC Barcelonaavg 59¢ | $2.94 | $2.79 | -$0.07 | 50% 20079-20419 (40498) |
Invested
$2,175.47
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$31.09
Record
71%
6976-2782 (9758)
Invested
$1,022.02
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$39.47
Record
47%
262-290 (552)
Invested
$918.77
Value
$944.68
PnL
+$25.91
Record
—
Invested
$908.5
Value
$513.3
PnL
-$13.5
Record
64%
1842-1020 (2862)
Invested
$1,077.5
Value
$468.71
PnL
+$16.16
Record
53%
810-720 (1530)
leflaiveInvested
$323.64
Value
$312.48
PnL
-$11.16
Record
42%
1204-1640 (2844)
Invested
$716.1
Value
$311.51
PnL
+$10.74
Record
50%
4906-4825 (9731)
Invested
$653.5
Value
$284.27
PnL
+$9.8
Record
52%
809-738 (1547)
Invested
$207.88
Value
$214.89
PnL
+$7.01
Record
55%
827-679 (1506)
Invested
$168
Value
$176
PnL
+$8
Record
48%
14253-15743 (29996)
noosh3Invested
$100
Value
$93.49
PnL
-$1.5
Record
52%
295-273 (568)
Invested
$84.2
Value
$80.38
PnL
-$3.81
Record
45%
13461-16377 (29838)
Invested
$64.3
Value
$66.91
PnL
+$2.61
Record
53%
16356-14530 (30886)
Invested
$36.35
Value
$35.66
PnL
+$2.64
Record
57%
17871-13366 (31237)
Invested
$25.45
Value
$25.91
PnL
+$0.45
Record
51%
23180-22031 (45211)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$18.91
Value
$17.52
PnL
-$1.39
Record
46%
8203-9568 (17771)
Invested
$8.42
Value
$8.77
PnL
+$0.35
Record
50%
25200-24902 (50102)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
8412-7681 (16093)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$2.79
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
20079-20419 (40498)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
AnonymousUsername
FC Barcelona — $2.1K
Multicoloured-Serf
CTRAston Villa FC — $1.1K
MadridTime
CTRAston Villa FC — $944.68
darkumbreon88
FC Barcelona — $513.3
LightParadox
CTRAston Villa FC — $468.71
leflaive
FC Barcelona — $312.48
hi774c
CTRAston Villa FC — $311.51
Venusian
CTRAston Villa FC — $284.27
Limousin
CTRAston Villa FC — $214.89
38791873984189
CTRAston Villa FC — $176