Como 1907 vs. RB Leipzig: 1st Half O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 88¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$3.5K
$2.2
87.5¢ → 87.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 85.2¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$59.27 | 73% 2898-1088 (3986) |
PV pvc975 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $834.97 | $731.33 | -$103.64 | 98% 14684-327 (15011) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 81.4¢ | $299.66 | $323.44 | +$23.78 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
 RN1 | Underavg 79¢ | $221.57 | $245.41 | +$23.84 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100 | Overavg 20¢ | $2.8 | $1.75 | -$1.05 | 57% 2394-1787 (4181) |
Invested
$2,175.15
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$59.27
Record
73%
2898-1088 (3986)
Invested
$834.97
Value
$731.33
PnL
-$103.64
Record
98%
14684-327 (15011)
Invested
$299.66
Value
$323.44
PnL
+$23.78
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
RN1Invested
$221.57
Value
$245.41
PnL
+$23.84
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$1.75
PnL
-$1.05
Record
57%
2394-1787 (4181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.