FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.5

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (77%) · Under at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 3

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 77%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$567.56

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares10,248

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over3 traders

Total Value$717.14

Total Shares1,516

Combined PnL-$929.07

Under — 77%Over — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 83.2¢	$6.0K	$7.2K	+$1.2K	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 24.2¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$292.74	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.2¢	$861	$1.2K	+$351.87
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.2¢	$1.1K	$417.31	-$644.61
VE Venusian	Underavg 35.7¢	$961.01	$1.2K	+$263.94	53% 916-813 (1729)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 83¢	$1.3K	$644.17	-$705.6	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 32¢	$176.53	$133.6	-$42.93	55% 3323-2713 (6036)
└ Over leg	Overavg 32¢	$115.6	$66.83	-$48.77
└ Under leg	Underavg 74.4¢	$60.92	$66.77	+$5.84
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 10.4¢	$103.37	$117.41	+$14.04	50% 11609-11459 (23068)
└ Over leg	Overavg 10.4¢	$78.38	$71.25	-$7.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$24.99	$46.16	+$21.17
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 9¢	$88.77	$117.35	+$28.57	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
└ Over leg	Overavg 9¢	$66.24	$69.92	+$3.68
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$22.53	$47.43	+$24.89
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 36.9¢	$305.9	$76	-$229.9	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.7¢	$29.54	$42.31	+$12.77
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.9¢	$276.36	$33.69	-$242.67
0X 0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187<$100	Underavg 56.5¢	$45.28	$68.57	+$23.29	15% 1116-6362 (7478)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 51¢	$314.93	$57.9	-$221.83	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 23.2¢	$30.68	$37.76	+$7.08	56% 942-736 (1678)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$16.71	$15.07	-$1.64	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$11.81	$11.63	-$0.19	52% 830-771 (1601)
NE Next-Licensing<$100	Underavg 99.9¢	$11.05	$11.05	+$0	99% 2573-33 (2606)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 66¢	$5.68	$8.22	+$2.54	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
HI hi774c<$100	Underavg 14¢	$3.18	$3.31	+$0.13	50% 4917-4837 (9754)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 14¢	$1.45	$1.51	+$0.06	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 14¢	$0.25	$0.24	-$0.02	50% 35607-35082 (70689)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$6,042.32

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,922.92

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$292.74

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

Both legs:

Under$86164.2¢+$351.87

Over$1,061.9224.2¢-$644.61

Venusian

Under

Invested

$961.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$263.94

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,349.77

Value

$644.17

PnL

-$705.6

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$176.53

Value

$133.6

PnL

-$42.93

Record

55%

3323-2713 (6036)

Both legs:

Over$115.632¢-$48.77

Under$60.9274.4¢+$5.84

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$103.37

Value

$117.41

PnL

+$14.04

Record

50%

11609-11459 (23068)

Both legs:

Over$78.3810.4¢-$7.13

Under$24.9949¢+$21.17

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$88.77

Value

$117.35

PnL

+$28.57

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

Both legs:

Over$66.249¢+$3.68

Under$22.5343¢+$24.89

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$305.9

Value

$76

PnL

-$229.9

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

Both legs:

Under$29.5466.7¢+$12.77

Over$276.3636.9¢-$242.67

0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187<$100

Under

Invested

$45.28

Value

$68.57

PnL

+$23.29

Record

15%

1116-6362 (7478)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$314.93

Value

$57.9

PnL

-$221.83

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$30.68

Value

$37.76

PnL

+$7.08

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.71

Value

$15.07

PnL

-$1.64

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$11.81

Value

$11.63

PnL

-$0.19

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Next-Licensing<$100

Under

Invested

$11.05

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

2573-33 (2606)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$5.68

Value

$8.22

PnL

+$2.54

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

hi774c<$100

Under

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.31

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

4917-4837 (9754)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.06

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.