Spread: FC Bayern München (-3.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Club Atlético de Madrid (33%) · Club Atlético de Madrid at 97¢ · $97K held · ends Nov 3

FC Bayern München3¢Club Atlético de Madrid97¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Club Atlético de Madrid

Consensus Traders

Club Atlético de Madrid 33%

Total Value

$96.5K

Combined PnL

$101.94

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 96.9¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralClub Atlético de Madrid at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Club Atlético de Madrid

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FC Bayern München3%

Club Atlético de Madrid97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Club Atlético de Madrid3 traders

Total Value$93.5K

Total Shares96,516

Combined PnL-$149.12

FC Bayern München6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares95,175

Combined PnL+$251.06

Club Atlético de Madrid — 33%FC Bayern München — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Club Atlético de Madrid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClub Atlético de Madrid 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrFC Bayern München 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000FC Bayern München 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Club Atlético de Madridavg 97¢	$92.8K	$92.7K	-$147.62	53% 2132-1868 (4000)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 3.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$50.03	52% 5916-5516 (11432)
FL FlaznorpCTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 3¢	$921.88	$1.1K	+$186.32	51% 23122-21932 (45054)
GO GoalLineGhost	Club Atlético de Madridavg 97¢	$777.86	$752.97	-$1.2	50% 27012-26932 (53944)
BB 0xbb64...db86CTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 3.1¢	$186.62	$192.64	+$6.02	—
LI LightParadoxCTR	FC Bayern Münchenavg 3¢	$120.63	$124.22	+$7.61	53% 780-684 (1464)
GH ghorrock<$100	Club Atlético de Madridavg 97.1¢	$28.5	$27.41	-$0.29	57% 17814-13331 (31145)
HRTradingCTR<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 3¢	$9.42	$9.73	+$0.63	51% 7181-6940 (14121)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	FC Bayern Münchenavg 3¢	$6.04	$6.29	+$0.45	48% 6030-6454 (12484)

0F62

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$92,799.07

Value

$92.7K

PnL

-$147.62

Record

53%

2132-1868 (4000)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$1,550

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$50.03

Record

52%

5916-5516 (11432)

FlaznorpCTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$921.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$186.32

Record

51%

23122-21932 (45054)

GoalLineGhost

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$777.86

Value

$752.97

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

27012-26932 (53944)

0xbb64...db86CTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$186.62

Value

$192.64

PnL

+$6.02

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR

FC Bayern München

Invested

$120.63

Value

$124.22

PnL

+$7.61

Record

53%

780-684 (1464)

ghorrock<$100

Club Atlético de Madrid

Invested

$28.5

Value

$27.41

PnL

-$0.29

Record

57%

17814-13331 (31145)

HRTradingCTR<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$9.42

Value

$9.73

PnL

+$0.63

Record

51%

7181-6940 (14121)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

FC Bayern München

Invested

$6.04

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

6030-6454 (12484)

Research grade

NeutralClub Atlético de Madrid at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Club Atlético de Madrid

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Club Atlético de Madrid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClub Atlético de Madrid 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrFC Bayern München 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000FC Bayern München 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Club Atlético de Madrid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.