Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime?

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 3

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$141.31

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares7,159

Combined PnL+$72.11

No9 traders

Total Value$759.46

Total Shares6,352

Combined PnL-$213.42

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
3648393489047	Yesavg 90.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$24.56	61% 1152-728 (1880)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 94.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$12.63	52% 830-771 (1601)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 90.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$33.6	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
ZX zxc368	Yesavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.56	98% 13990-239 (14229)
RN1CTR	Noavg 46¢	$425.93	$425.93	-$0	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 88.6¢	$315.06	$332.39	+$17.33	56% 942-736 (1678)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 9.5¢	$175.35	$119.84	-$55.51	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Yesavg 90.8¢	$107.76	$111.57	+$3.81	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 43.2¢	$111.72	$111.16	-$0.56	53% 916-813 (1729)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Noavg 10¢	$100.74	$85.22	-$15.51	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$58.34	$61.16	+$2.83	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$36	$39	+$3	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 8.6¢	$192.11	$21.77	-$148.33	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
nigiri99<$100	Yesavg 38.1¢	$20.58	$19.17	-$1.41	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 53.1¢	$8.97	$15.79	+$6.82	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
MI MinevaJ<$100	Yesavg 99¢	$4.7	$4.73	+$0.02	57% 1088-834 (1922)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$2.22	$2.35	+$0.13	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$2.18	$2.23	+$0.05	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$2.02	$1.95	-$0.07	57% 2315-1729 (4044)

3648393489047

Yes

Invested

$2,115.63

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$24.56

Record

61%

1152-728 (1880)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$1,523.13

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$12.63

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,232.85

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$33.6

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

zxc368

Yes

Invested

$1,128

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.56

Record

98%

13990-239 (14229)

RN1CTR

Invested

$425.93

Value

$425.93

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$315.06

Value

$332.39

PnL

+$17.33

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$175.35

Value

$119.84

PnL

-$55.51

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Yes

Invested

$107.76

Value

$111.57

PnL

+$3.81

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$111.72

Value

$111.16

PnL

-$0.56

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Invested

$100.74

Value

$85.22

PnL

-$15.51

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$58.34

Value

$61.16

PnL

+$2.83

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$39

PnL

+$3

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$192.11

Value

$21.77

PnL

-$148.33

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

nigiri99<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.58

Value

$19.17

PnL

-$1.41

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.97

Value

$15.79

PnL

+$6.82

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

MinevaJ<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

1088-834 (1922)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Invested

$2.02

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.07

Record

57%

2315-1729 (4044)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.