Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 0 FC Bayern München?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$37.12

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares7,144

Combined PnL+$145.48

Yes5 traders

Total Value$37.97

Total Shares4,097

Combined PnL-$108.36

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 97.4¢	$5.9K	$6.0K	+$144.01	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 99.7¢	$997	$998	+$1	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$71.63	$72.07	+$0.44	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$27.07	$27.09	+$0.02	54% 906-787 (1693)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$19.04	$19.04	-$0.89	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$107.72	$16.54	-$91.18	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$4.94	$4.96	+$0.01	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$1.05	$1.07	+$0.02	56% 942-736 (1678)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$1.05	$1.07	+$0.02	52% 830-771 (1601)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$17.79	$0.25	-$16.34	48% 14393-15903 (30296)

RN1

Invested

$5,884.43

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$144.01

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$997

Value

$998

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$71.63

Value

$72.07

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$27.07

Value

$27.09

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.04

Value

$19.04

PnL

-$0.89

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$107.72

Value

$16.54

PnL

-$91.18

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.79

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$16.34

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.