Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 0 - 0 FC Bayern München?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$478.05

Smart Money Entry

95.5¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares6,896

Combined PnL-$182.52

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares7,299

Combined PnL+$660.57

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 99.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$7.02	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 93.1¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$120.72	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 94.7¢	$1.1K	$966.55	-$117.06	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 96.1¢	$990.44	$881.79	-$108.65	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
RN1	Noavg 91.5¢	$857.3	$787.83	-$69.47	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$134.01	$482.78	+$348.77	56% 942-736 (1678)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$117.55	$336.73	+$219.18	54% 906-787 (1693)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 8.2¢	$57.15	$126.02	+$68.87	53% 916-813 (1729)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 92.4¢	$119.56	$120.01	+$0.45	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$60.17	$85.96	+$25.79	52% 830-771 (1601)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$30.05	$28.57	-$1.48	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$26.4	$25.19	-$1.21	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$9.98	$9.39	-$0.59	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.36	$1.63	+$0.12	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$1.98	$1.61	-$0.37	46% 8245-9621 (17866)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,012.32

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$7.02

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

38791873984189

Invested

$1,684.29

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$120.72

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,083.61

Value

$966.55

PnL

-$117.06

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$990.44

Value

$881.79

PnL

-$108.65

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

RN1

Invested

$857.3

Value

$787.83

PnL

-$69.47

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$134.01

Value

$482.78

PnL

+$348.77

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.55

Value

$336.73

PnL

+$219.18

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$57.15

Value

$126.02

PnL

+$68.87

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$119.56

Value

$120.01

PnL

+$0.45

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.17

Value

$85.96

PnL

+$25.79

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.05

Value

$28.57

PnL

-$1.48

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.4

Value

$25.19

PnL

-$1.21

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.39

PnL

-$0.59

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.12

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$0.37

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.