Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Exact Score: Umraniyespor 1 - 0 Boluspor?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 49¢ · $453 held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$453.31
$377.97
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $468 | $231.66 | +$219.01 | 28% 364-941 (1305) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $39.07 | $138.14 | +$99.07 | 51% 25532-24237 (49769) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $18.37 | $64.95 | +$46.58 | 58% 51318-37292 (88610) |
YO youcanbuythisbotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $37.5 | $18.56 | +$13.31 | 49% 11082-11430 (22512) |
Invested
$468
Value
$231.66
PnL
+$219.01
Record
28%
364-941 (1305)
Invested
$39.07
Value
$138.14
PnL
+$99.07
Record
51%
25532-24237 (49769)
Invested
$18.37
Value
$64.95
PnL
+$46.58
Record
58%
51318-37292 (88610)
Invested
$37.5
Value
$18.56
PnL
+$13.31
Record
49%
11082-11430 (22512)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.