Samsunspor vs. Konyaspor: O/U 2.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 56¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$3.7K
$353.41
49.7¢ → 56.5¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 48.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.4K | +$368.75 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 55.3¢ | $530.48 | $541.56 | +$11.08 | 50% 28937-28754 (57691) |
MA MadridTime | Underavg 49.2¢ | $422.95 | $403.65 | -$19.31 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
VE Venusian | Underavg 49.2¢ | $334.28 | $319.02 | -$15.26 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100 | Overavg 54.2¢ | $35.81 | $34.99 | -$0.82 | 59% 6849-4851 (11700) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $8.71 | $17.75 | +$9.04 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $7.65 | $7.2 | -$0.08 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$1,991.57
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$368.75
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$530.48
Value
$541.56
PnL
+$11.08
Record
50%
28937-28754 (57691)
Invested
$422.95
Value
$403.65
PnL
-$19.31
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$334.28
Value
$319.02
PnL
-$15.26
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$35.81
Value
$34.99
PnL
-$0.82
Record
59%
6849-4851 (11700)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.71
Value
$17.75
PnL
+$9.04
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Invested
$7.65
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.