Çaykur Rizespor vs. Erzurumspor FK: O/U 3.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 100¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 8

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

Total Value

$18.6K

Combined PnL

$5.3K

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 100¢

+54% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$18.1K

Total Shares18,071

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Over7 traders

Total Value$533.65

Total Shares5,323

Combined PnL-$788.05

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 60¢	$7.4K	$12.0K	+$4.6K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 75.6¢	$4.5K	$6.0K	+$1.5K	73% 3120-1177 (4297)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 32.1¢	$159.97	$233.13	+$73.16	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 32.4¢	$132.34	$194.53	+$62.19	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 40.5¢	$74.63	$109.68	+$35.04	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 33.1¢	$72.77	$103.83	+$31.06	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
RN1CTR	Overavg 19¢	$594.41	$1.56	-$592.84	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 30.7¢	$268.22	$0.44	-$267.78	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
DA dartanyan150CTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$93	$0.15	-$92.85	58% 257-186 (443)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$1	$0.02	-$0.98	50% 59994-58808 (118802)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$7,398.18

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$4,539.63

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

73%

3120-1177 (4297)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$159.97

Value

$233.13

PnL

+$73.16

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$132.34

Value

$194.53

PnL

+$62.19

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$74.63

Value

$109.68

PnL

+$35.04

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$72.77

Value

$103.83

PnL

+$31.06

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$594.41

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$592.84

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$268.22

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$267.78

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

dartanyan150CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$92.85

Record

58%

257-186 (443)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.98

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.