Eyüpspor vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 3.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 96¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
1 arb excluded
$8.0K
$2.4K
64.7¢ → 96¢
+48% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL plusti | Underavg 47.2¢ | $2.1K | $4.2K | +$2.1K | — 15-0 (15) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 87.6¢ | $2.9K | $3.2K | +$278.24 | 73% 3105-1173 (4278) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 33.3¢ | $1.2K | $598 | -$574.38 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 33.3¢ | $994.55 | $388.57 | -$605.98 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 81.5¢ | $177.84 | $209.43 | +$31.6 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 67.1¢ | $20.14 | $28.8 | +$8.66 | 46% 1791-2100 (3891) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 77.9¢ | $21.77 | $22.56 | +$0.8 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 85¢ | $13.31 | $15.03 | +$1.72 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $4.8 | +$0.95 | 52% 9018-8169 (17187) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $4.6 | $2.6 | -$2 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$2,054
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
—
15-0 (15)
Invested
$2,888.65
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$278.24
Record
73%
3105-1173 (4278)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,172.39
Value
$598
PnL
-$574.38
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.14
Value
$28.8
PnL
+$8.66
Record
46%
1791-2100 (3891)
Invested
$21.77
Value
$22.56
PnL
+$0.8
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$13.31
Value
$15.03
PnL
+$1.72
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.95
Record
52%
9018-8169 (17187)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$2
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.