Eyüpspor vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 2.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 92¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 7

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 92¢

+78% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares5,062

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,736

Combined PnL+$215.45

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL plusti	Underavg 43.1¢	$1.5K	$3.3K	+$1.8K	— 15-0 (15)
RN1CTR	Overavg 57.9¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$258.57	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 91.9¢	$636.72	$637.57	+$0.85	73% 3105-1173 (4278)
0xheavy888	Underavg 58¢	$260.42	$448.78	+$188.36	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 55.8¢	$99.57	$164.1	-$4.14	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Overavg 8.4¢	$71.2	$106.43	+$35.24	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.3¢	$22.24	$59.63	+$37.39
└ Over leg	Overavg 8.4¢	$48.95	$46.8	-$2.15
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 34.8¢	$74.73	$74.69	+$48.68	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 56.3¢	$46.85	$66.83	+$19.99	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 75¢	$62.93	$20.13	-$42.8	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 57¢	$8.55	$13.8	+$5.25	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 7.3¢	$3.94	$7.09	+$3.15	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$7.1	$5.4	-$3.53	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 7.9¢	$3.25	$3.31	+$0.06	48% 1775-1911 (3686)

plusti

Under

Invested

$1,543.58

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

—

15-0 (15)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,569.75

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$258.57

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$636.72

Value

$637.57

PnL

+$0.85

Record

73%

3105-1173 (4278)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$260.42

Value

$448.78

PnL

+$188.36

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$99.57

Value

$164.1

PnL

-$4.14

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$71.2

Value

$106.43

PnL

+$35.24

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Both legs:

Under$22.2434.3¢+$37.39

Over$48.958.4¢-$2.15

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$74.73

Value

$74.69

PnL

+$48.68

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$46.85

Value

$66.83

PnL

+$19.99

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.93

Value

$20.13

PnL

-$42.8

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$8.55

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$5.25

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.94

Value

$7.09

PnL

+$3.15

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.1

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$3.53

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.31

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.