Beşiktaş JK vs. Gençlerbirliği SK: O/U 3.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 64¢ · $94K held · ended Nov 8

Over37¢Under63¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$94.1K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 63.5¢

+27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$56.2K

Total Shares100,466

Combined PnL+$6.2K

Over7 traders

Total Value$33.3K

Total Shares76,116

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Underavg 49.8¢	$49.8K	$56.0K	+$6.2K	48% 214-236 (450)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 50¢	$30.2K	$26.0K	$-4.2K	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
QI qinlaobanCTR	Overavg 51¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$150.13	49% 489-508 (997)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 50.3¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$394.84	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.3¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$404.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 59¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9.4
RN1CTR	Overavg 44.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$24.74	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
ZH zhuz632CTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$207.54	50% 255-250 (505)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 50.4¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$56.07	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.4¢	$645.35	$601.23	-$44.12
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.4¢	$460.56	$448.61	-$11.95
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 43.4¢	$724.03	$766.05	+$42.01	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$336.48	$386.95	+$50.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.4¢	$387.56	$379.1	-$8.46
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 51.4¢	$627.76	$606.14	-$21.62	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Underavg 55¢	$241.45	$212.92	-$28.53	64% 1239-706 (1945)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Overavg 51.2¢	$71.75	$61.6	-$10.15	59% 7304-5065 (12369)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 51.2¢	$25.84	$13.31	+$0.08	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Underavg 55¢	$9.82	$9.29	-$0.53	53% 2967-2581 (5548)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 48¢	$11.25	$5.46	+$0.06	48% 2032-2230 (4262)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Under

Invested

$49,815.55

Value

$56.0K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

48%

214-236 (450)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$30,204.45

Value

$26.0K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

qinlaobanCTR

Over

Invested

$3,064.5

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$150.13

Record

49%

489-508 (997)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,186.41

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$394.84

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

Over$2,077.4650.3¢-$404.24

Under$1,108.9659¢+$9.4

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,228.1

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$24.74

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

zhuz632CTR

Over

Invested

$1,729.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$207.54

Record

50%

255-250 (505)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,105.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$56.07

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

Over$645.3550.4¢-$44.12

Under$460.5654.4¢-$11.95

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$724.03

Value

$766.05

PnL

+$42.01

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Both legs:

Under$336.4850¢+$50.47

Over$387.5643.4¢-$8.46

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$627.76

Value

$606.14

PnL

-$21.62

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

lukibazdonauki754

Under

Invested

$241.45

Value

$212.92

PnL

-$28.53

Record

64%

1239-706 (1945)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71.75

Value

$61.6

PnL

-$10.15

Record

59%

7304-5065 (12369)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.84

Value

$13.31

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Under

Invested

$9.82

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$0.53

Record

53%

2967-2581 (5548)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$11.25

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.