Beşiktaş JK vs. Gençlerbirliği SK: O/U 2.5

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.4K

Combined PnL

$231.04

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 100¢

+80% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 18 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares19,394

Combined PnL+$8.4K

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares21,002

Combined PnL$-8.2K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chongchong37	Overavg 49¢	$7.3K	$15.0K	+$7.6K	50% 150-151 (301)
SH shiifoo	Overavg 89.5¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$182.47	48% 5133-5658 (10791)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 49.6¢	$7.5K	$1.6K	$-5.8K	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
RN1	Overavg 59.3¢	$923.27	$1.5K	+$587	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 16.4¢	$348.02	$370.55	+$22.53	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.9¢	$135.41	$208.36	+$72.96
└ Under leg	Underavg 16.4¢	$212.61	$162.18	-$50.43
US User7429	Overavg 89¢	$292.02	$327.95	+$35.93	56% 10311-8123 (18434)
0xheavy888	Overavg 73¢	$291.97	$303.97	+$12	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
dips.	Overavg 93.7¢	$325	$238.26	-$86.74	46% 12092-14003 (26095)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 92.8¢	$133.71	$144	+$10.29	71% 18402-7575 (25977)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 28.4¢	$29.4	$69.36	+$15.56	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$28.89	$20.91	-$7.98	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 47¢	$5.17	$10.99	+$5.82	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$5.36	$5.72	+$0.36	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 33.3¢	$7.91	$4.63	-$3.28	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 71¢	$3.65	$3.73	+$0.08	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
JhonAlexanderHinestrozaCTR	Underavg 11¢	$500	$2.27	-$497.73	55% 1294-1056 (2350)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.8K	$1.81	$-1.8K	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$3.68	$0.06	-$3.62	47% 6221-6932 (13153)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$10	$0.01	-$9.99	65% 25411-13605 (39016)

chongchong37

Over

Invested

$7,350

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$7.6K

Record

50%

150-151 (301)

shiifoo

Over

Invested

$1,585.65

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$182.47

Record

48%

5133-5658 (10791)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$7,454.58

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-5.8K

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

RN1

Over

Invested

$923.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$587

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$348.02

Value

$370.55

PnL

+$22.53

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

Both legs:

Over$135.4156.9¢+$72.96

Under$212.6116.4¢-$50.43

User7429

Over

Invested

$292.02

Value

$327.95

PnL

+$35.93

Record

56%

10311-8123 (18434)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$291.97

Value

$303.97

PnL

+$12

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

dips.

Over

Invested

$325

Value

$238.26

PnL

-$86.74

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$133.71

Value

$144

PnL

+$10.29

Record

71%

18402-7575 (25977)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.4

Value

$69.36

PnL

+$15.56

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.89

Value

$20.91

PnL

-$7.98

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$5.17

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$5.82

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.36

Value

$5.72

PnL

+$0.36

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.91

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$3.28

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

JhonAlexanderHinestrozaCTR

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$497.73

Record

55%

1294-1056 (2350)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$1,844.7

Value

$1.81

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.68

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.62

Record

47%

6221-6932 (13153)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.99

Record

65%

25411-13605 (39016)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 18 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.