Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
IFK Varnamo vs. IFK Norrkoping FK: O/U 3.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 0.5¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$110.97
50¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 56¢ | $304.2 | $418.44 | +$114.24 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
NM NM-PCTR | Overavg 50.4¢ | $218.16 | $216.42 | -$1.73 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
GC GC-PCTR | Overavg 50.4¢ | $432.85 | $214.26 | -$3.9 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Underavg 54.1¢ | $90.12 | $90.3 | -$2.68 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.1¢ | $60.82 | $58.46 | -$2.36 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46¢ | $29.3 | $31.85 | -$0.32 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 49.9¢ | $52.56 | $52.66 | +$0.11 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $22.88 | $26 | +$2.86 | 53% 1125-987 (2112) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Underavg 53.2¢ | $26.18 | $25.57 | -$0.61 | 59% 6849-4851 (11700) |
Invested
$304.2
Value
$418.44
PnL
+$114.24
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$218.16
Value
$216.42
PnL
-$1.73
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$432.85
Value
$214.26
PnL
-$3.9
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
Invested
$90.12
Value
$90.3
PnL
-$2.68
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$52.56
Value
$52.66
PnL
+$0.11
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$22.88
Value
$26
PnL
+$2.86
Record
53%
1125-987 (2112)
Invested
$26.18
Value
$25.57
PnL
-$0.61
Record
59%
6849-4851 (11700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.