Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kalmar FF vs. IK Sirius: O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$7.5K
$-1.9K
47.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$40.99 | 50% 23433-23429 (46862) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 55¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | -$337.32 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | +$296.33 | |
PE pelik | Underavg 99.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$1 | 99% 11187-136 (11323) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 53¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | -$441.4 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 44¢ | $600 | $333 | +$69 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
 RN1 | Underavg 44¢ | $498.63 | $266.77 | +$47.2 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
SE sentrioCTR | Overavg 55¢ | $245.62 | $149.83 | +$14.74 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 43.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.83 | $-1.6K | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
Invested
$2,946.81
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$40.99
Record
50%
23433-23429 (46862)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1
Record
99%
11187-136 (11323)
Invested
$1,390.5
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$441.4
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
VeryLucky888Invested
$600
Value
$333
PnL
+$69
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
RN1Invested
$498.63
Value
$266.77
PnL
+$47.2
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$245.62
Value
$149.83
PnL
+$14.74
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
Invested
$1,586.29
Value
$1.83
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.