Will IK Sirius win on 2026-11-08?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
3 arb excluded
$16.3K
$2.8K
58.6¢ → 100¢
+71% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $5.0K | $8.0K | +$2.9K | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 61.1¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | -$112.77 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 57.4¢ | $3.7K | $3.6K | -$129.68 | 50% 23433-23429 (46862) |
 LooksMaxing101 | Noavg 53¢ | $309.43 | $255.28 | +$91.28 | 51% 900-866 (1766) |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 43.7¢ | $425.7 | $189.73 | -$10.99 | 57% 22219-16567 (38786) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52¢ | $91.8 | $147.36 | +$55.54 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.7¢ | $108.89 | $42.37 | -$66.53 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $115.54 | $133.92 | +$19.55 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Noavg 54.3¢ | $143.01 | $121.35 | +$31.79 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54.3¢ | $63.59 | $95.39 | +$31.79 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42¢ | $58.95 | $25.96 | +$0 | |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $92.49 | $90.05 | +$22.59 | 57% 22329-16593 (38922) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $112.46 | $47.55 | +$7.2 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52¢ | $27.11 | $42.49 | +$15.38 |
RN1Invested
$5,049.79
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$2.9K
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$3,970.06
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$112.77
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$3,742.78
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$129.68
Record
50%
23433-23429 (46862)
LooksMaxing101Invested
$309.43
Value
$255.28
PnL
+$91.28
Record
51%
900-866 (1766)
Invested
$425.7
Value
$189.73
PnL
-$10.99
Record
57%
22219-16567 (38786)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.54
Value
$133.92
PnL
+$19.55
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$143.01
Value
$121.35
PnL
+$31.79
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.49
Value
$90.05
PnL
+$22.59
Record
57%
22329-16593 (38922)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.