GAIS vs. AIK: O/U 2.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 57¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$13.75
59¢ → 57.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 39.5¢ | $722.29 | $729.44 | +$7.15 | 51% 17624-16627 (34251) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 39.5¢ | $396.42 | $406.35 | +$9.87 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 60¢ | $325.75 | $323.09 | -$2.71 | |
 fyrsken | Overavg 59¢ | $235.99 | $237.99 | +$2 | 48% 301-322 (623) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 40¢ | $243.55 | $120.44 | +$10.89 | 58% 43629-31734 (75363) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $78.28 | $78.91 | +$0.63 | 45% 12963-15726 (28689) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $18.8 | $19.04 | +$0.24 | 46% 9230-10945 (20175) |
Invested
$722.29
Value
$729.44
PnL
+$7.15
Record
51%
17624-16627 (34251)
Both legs:
fyrskenInvested
$235.99
Value
$237.99
PnL
+$2
Record
48%
301-322 (623)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$243.55
Value
$120.44
PnL
+$10.89
Record
58%
43629-31734 (75363)
Invested
$78.28
Value
$78.91
PnL
+$0.63
Record
45%
12963-15726 (28689)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$19.04
PnL
+$0.24
Record
46%
9230-10945 (20175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.