Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

FK Radnicki Nis vs. FK Zeleznicar Pancevo: O/U 0.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 49¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 2

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$95.95

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 48.5¢

-16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,498

Combined PnL+$358.74

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,227

Combined PnL-$262.79

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Overavg 39¢	$769.17	$1.0K	+$266.99	61% 902-585 (1487)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR	Underavg 63.7¢	$1.4K	$997.34	-$292.12	42% 2317-3157 (5474)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121CTR	Underavg 45.1¢	$438.07	$461.37	+$23.3	82% 73-16 (89)
LR lryyy	Overavg 44.3¢	$129.9	$145.35	+$16	47% 8915-10013 (18928)
alpheclabs2	Overavg 28.1¢	$65.12	$122.96	+$57.84	48% 190-209 (399)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70<$100	Overavg 40¢	$52.37	$68.42	+$16.2	75% 108-36 (144)
poshposhARB<$100	Underavg 65.4¢	$49.94	$45.98	-$2.79	57% 11685-8789 (20474)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.6¢	$19.22	$24.85	+$4.2
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.4¢	$30.71	$21.14	-$7
RE retarb<$100	Overavg 50¢	$28.5	$29.93	+$1.71	48% 4288-4593 (8881)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$12	$12.13	+$0.13	56% 837-657 (1494)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$0.61	$6.06	+$5.45	46% 9313-11085 (20398)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$0.04	$0.48	+$0.45	51% 22704-21519 (44223)

lukibazdonauki754

Over

Invested

$769.17

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$266.99

Record

61%

902-585 (1487)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR

Under

Invested

$1,411.37

Value

$997.34

PnL

-$292.12

Record

42%

2317-3157 (5474)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121CTR

Under

Invested

$438.07

Value

$461.37

PnL

+$23.3

Record

82%

73-16 (89)

lryyy

Over

Invested

$129.9

Value

$145.35

PnL

+$16

Record

47%

8915-10013 (18928)

alpheclabs2

Over

Invested

$65.12

Value

$122.96

PnL

+$57.84

Record

48%

190-209 (399)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70<$100

Over

Invested

$52.37

Value

$68.42

PnL

+$16.2

Record

75%

108-36 (144)

poshposhARB<$100

Under

Invested

$49.94

Value

$45.98

PnL

-$2.79

Record

57%

11685-8789 (20474)

Both legs:

Invested

$28.5

Value

$29.93

PnL

+$1.71

Record

48%

4288-4593 (8881)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12

Value

$12.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

56%

837-657 (1494)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.61

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$5.45

Record

46%

9313-11085 (20398)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

22704-21519 (44223)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.