Will FK Radnicki Nis vs. FK Zeleznicar Pancevo end in a draw?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (46%) · Yes at 98¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 2

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 46%

Total Value

$27.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 97.9¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares27,381

Combined PnL+$816.89

No7 traders

Total Value$686.83

Total Shares31,254

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Yes — 46%No — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 55% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GT gt7238	Yesavg 94.4¢	$15.0K	$15.8K	+$547.79	45% 637-792 (1429)
WH whig	Yesavg 92.6¢	$8.3K	$8.9K	+$467.61	59% 403-280 (683)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 95.8¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$336.81	54% 21790-18840 (40630)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 86.1¢	$912.22	$1.0K	+$124.36	61% 902-585 (1487)
AH aHjCzCTR	Noavg 7.6¢	$1.1K	$308.8	-$775.76	40% 5232-7932 (13164)
RE retarbCTR	Noavg 7.5¢	$514.5	$150.15	-$335.13	48% 4288-4593 (8881)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Noavg 10.5¢	$604.87	$132.38	-$472.49	48% 5112-5613 (10725)
poshposhCTR	Noavg 15.5¢	$318.19	$45.28	-$256.41	57% 11685-8789 (20474)
LR lryyyCTR	Noavg 11.6¢	$206.61	$39.2	-$166.48	47% 8915-10013 (18928)
Rex416<$100	Yesavg 33.4¢	$6.81	$19.97	+$13.16	57% 2569-1953 (4522)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$10	$9.78	+$0.78	82% 73-16 (89)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$12.15	$6.74	-$5.49	51% 22704-21519 (44223)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$96.89	$4.26	-$92.53	50% 1307-1321 (2628)

gt7238

Yes

Invested

$15,016.32

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$547.79

Record

45%

637-792 (1429)

whig

Yes

Invested

$8,329.95

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$467.61

Record

59%

403-280 (683)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$1,750

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$336.81

Record

54%

21790-18840 (40630)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$912.22

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$124.36

Record

61%

902-585 (1487)

aHjCzCTR

Invested

$1,084.56

Value

$308.8

PnL

-$775.76

Record

40%

5232-7932 (13164)

retarbCTR

Invested

$514.5

Value

$150.15

PnL

-$335.13

Record

48%

4288-4593 (8881)

SlickRick123CTR

Invested

$604.87

Value

$132.38

PnL

-$472.49

Record

48%

5112-5613 (10725)

poshposhCTR

Invested

$318.19

Value

$45.28

PnL

-$256.41

Record

57%

11685-8789 (20474)

lryyyCTR

Invested

$206.61

Value

$39.2

PnL

-$166.48

Record

47%

8915-10013 (18928)

Rex416<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.81

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$13.16

Record

57%

2569-1953 (4522)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$9.78

PnL

+$0.78

Record

82%

73-16 (89)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$12.15

Value

$6.74

PnL

-$5.49

Record

51%

22704-21519 (44223)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Invested

$96.89

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$92.53

Record

50%

1307-1321 (2628)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 55% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.