Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-10-16?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 76¢ · $348 held · ends Dec 19
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$347.84
-$33
82.9¢ → 75.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
102h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 85¢ | $251.25 | $226.12 | -$29.56 | 51% 26319-24948 (51267) |
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $60.68 | $62.73 | +$1.23 | 61% 960-606 (1566) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $42 | $38.25 | -$3.25 | 48% 61878-66736 (128614) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $15.42 | $14.04 | -$1.47 | 58% 47054-33937 (80991) |
YO youcanbuythisbot<$100 | Yesavg 85.6¢ | $6.46 | $6.69 | +$0.05 | 49% 11142-11506 (22648) |
Invested
$251.25
Value
$226.12
PnL
-$29.56
Record
51%
26319-24948 (51267)
Invested
$60.68
Value
$62.73
PnL
+$1.23
Record
61%
960-606 (1566)
Invested
$42
Value
$38.25
PnL
-$3.25
Record
48%
61878-66736 (128614)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$15.42
Value
$14.04
PnL
-$1.47
Record
58%
47054-33937 (80991)
Invested
$6.46
Value
$6.69
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
11142-11506 (22648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.