Exact Score: Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Fayha Saudi Club?

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 91¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 5

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$415.51

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 91.5¢

+21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 18 top traders (44%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares8,497

Combined PnL+$1.2K

No10 traders

Total Value$513.67

Total Shares4,741

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dips.	Yesavg 96.4¢	$5.3K	$5.0K	-$270.34	47% 10150-11471 (21621)
WH whosay	Yesavg 36.7¢	$504.65	$1.2K	+$713.87	56% 1126-879 (2005)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121	Yesavg 57.4¢	$367.24	$567.27	+$180.18	82% 75-17 (92)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 3.6¢	$21.75	$531.6	+$489.15	75% 108-36 (144)
shineforever	Yesavg 48.3¢	$103.72	$190.21	+$57.5	58% 82-60 (142)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Yesavg 93.2¢	$177.14	$168.34	-$8.8	45% 10667-12831 (23498)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 78.6¢	$1.1K	$163.59	-$888.22	50% 35629-35110 (70739)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 45.4¢	$571.25	$143.33	-$427.92	50% 20222-20549 (40771)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 3.7¢	$34.53	$80.46	+$45.92	17% 4208-19852 (24060)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 78.8¢	$194.89	$49.7	-$145.19	51% 23440-22208 (45648)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 96¢	$144.8	$45.6	-$99.2	58% 44668-32527 (77195)
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$11.14	$14.73	+$3.59	61% 906-591 (1497)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$49.36	$10.82	-$35.6	63% 710-410 (1120)
CA canupdatelateron<$100	Yesavg 74.3¢	$7.72	$9.2	+$1.49	69% 465-208 (673)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 9.1¢	$6.37	$7.98	+$1.61	60% 11493-7614 (19107)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$20.8	$6.49	-$14.31	69% 504-223 (727)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$23.64	$3.42	-$20.22	51% 7362-7108 (14470)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 6.6¢	$1.32	$2.28	+$0.96	54% 22041-19146 (41187)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$5,254.16

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$270.34

Record

47%

10150-11471 (21621)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$504.65

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$713.87

Record

56%

1126-879 (2005)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121

Yes

Invested

$367.24

Value

$567.27

PnL

+$180.18

Record

82%

75-17 (92)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$21.75

Value

$531.6

PnL

+$489.15

Record

75%

108-36 (144)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$103.72

Value

$190.21

PnL

+$57.5

Record

58%

82-60 (142)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Yes

Invested

$177.14

Value

$168.34

PnL

-$8.8

Record

45%

10667-12831 (23498)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,128.58

Value

$163.59

PnL

-$888.22

Record

50%

35629-35110 (70739)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$571.25

Value

$143.33

PnL

-$427.92

Record

50%

20222-20549 (40771)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$34.53

Value

$80.46

PnL

+$45.92

Record

17%

4208-19852 (24060)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$194.89

Value

$49.7

PnL

-$145.19

Record

51%

23440-22208 (45648)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$144.8

Value

$45.6

PnL

-$99.2

Record

58%

44668-32527 (77195)

lukibazdonauki754<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.14

Value

$14.73

PnL

+$3.59

Record

61%

906-591 (1497)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

$49.36

Value

$10.82

PnL

-$35.6

Record

63%

710-410 (1120)

canupdatelateron<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.72

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$1.49

Record

69%

465-208 (673)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$6.37

Value

$7.98

PnL

+$1.61

Record

60%

11493-7614 (19107)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

$6.49

PnL

-$14.31

Record

69%

504-223 (727)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$23.64

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$20.22

Record

51%

7362-7108 (14470)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.96

Record

54%

22041-19146 (41187)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 18 top traders (44%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.