Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 99.4¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,314

Combined PnL+$61.71

Yes8 traders

Total Value$84.67

Total Shares13,027

Combined PnL$-2.2K

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bot-rapin	Noavg 98.6¢	$6.9K	$7.0K	+$46.9	— 6-0 (6)
xxNyx	Noavg 98.9¢	$1.6K	$595.08	+$11.58	82% 1819-407 (2226)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 93.1¢	$537.5	$537.24	-$0.26	53% 24138-21186 (45324)
pIebe	Noavg 97¢	$143.77	$147.25	+$3.48	61% 880-559 (1439)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 12¢	$716.11	$38.82	-$670.62	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 19.7¢	$637.25	$21	-$617.62	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 36.7¢	$678.5	$12.26	-$666.24	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$49.07	$6.63	-$40.21	53% 16960-15081 (32041)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Yesavg 21.4¢	$181.01	$5.49	-$175.52	62% 782-473 (1255)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.8¢	$16.52	$0.32	-$16.2	49% 267-278 (545)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.15	$0.08	-$2.04	34% 3356-6382 (9738)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$3.67	$0.07	-$3.6	32% 3312-7183 (10495)

bot-rapin

Invested

$6,933.11

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$46.9

Record

—

6-0 (6)

xxNyx

Invested

$1,553.35

Value

$595.08

PnL

+$11.58

Record

82%

1819-407 (2226)

cigarettes

Invested

$537.5

Value

$537.24

PnL

-$0.26

Record

53%

24138-21186 (45324)

pIebe

Invested

$143.77

Value

$147.25

PnL

+$3.48

Record

61%

880-559 (1439)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$716.11

Value

$38.82

PnL

-$670.62

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$637.25

Value

$21

PnL

-$617.62

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$678.5

Value

$12.26

PnL

-$666.24

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.07

Value

$6.63

PnL

-$40.21

Record

53%

16960-15081 (32041)

Burkilota1CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.01

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$175.52

Record

62%

782-473 (1255)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.52

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$16.2

Record

49%

267-278 (545)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.04

Record

34%

3356-6382 (9738)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.67

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.6

Record

32%

3312-7183 (10495)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.