Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 12 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Al Kholood Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Khaleej Saudi Club?

12 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 4.0¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 5

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$28.8K

Combined PnL

$-9.6K

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 4¢

-95% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 20 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$25.8K

Total Shares26,881

Combined PnL+$11.7K

No12 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares49,773

Combined PnL$-21.3K

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
shineforever	Yesavg 14.1¢	$2.0K	$13.5K	+$9.7K	58% 82-60 (142)
DI dips.	Yesavg 91.8¢	$6.9K	$7.3K	+$315.03	47% 10131-11459 (21590)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 86.7¢	$16.5K	$2.1K	$-14.4K	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
morito181	Yesavg 34.4¢	$539.7	$1.5K	+$871.05	61% 847-548 (1395)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121	Yesavg 88.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$117.78	82% 75-17 (92)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123	Yesavg 67.5¢	$948.49	$1.3K	+$287.7	60% 72-49 (121)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 65.5¢	$6.7K	$614.99	$-5.5K	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 9.8¢	$44.99	$442.53	+$369.89	75% 108-36 (144)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 58.6¢	$144.8	$237.09	+$76.24	53% 172-152 (324)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 84.1¢	$1.2K	$85.1	$-1.1K	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 0.4¢	$5.84	$82.42	+$84.12	73% 13376-5006 (18382)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$45.99	$39.42	-$6.57	18% 4199-19790 (23989)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Yesavg 90.4¢	$35.13	$37.29	+$2.16	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 43.7¢	$129.94	$17.83	-$112.11	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$34.83	$16.8	-$16.83	43% 3085-4124 (7209)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 89.9¢	$343.53	$13.02	-$175.51	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 43.5¢	$90.5	$12.47	-$69.71	63% 710-409 (1119)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Noavg 42.5¢	$40.21	$7.65	-$32.56	69% 504-222 (726)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 22.8¢	$5.98	$2.5	-$3.48	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$8.32	$2.4	+$3.04	60% 11480-7596 (19076)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$2,035.32

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$9.7K

Record

58%

82-60 (142)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$6,941.57

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$315.03

Record

47%

10131-11459 (21590)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$16,456.83

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-14.4K

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$539.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$871.05

Record

61%

847-548 (1395)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121

Yes

Invested

$1,382.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$117.78

Record

82%

75-17 (92)

PLACEYOURBETS123

Yes

Invested

$948.49

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$287.7

Record

60%

72-49 (121)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$6,715.46

Value

$614.99

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$44.99

Value

$442.53

PnL

+$369.89

Record

75%

108-36 (144)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$144.8

Value

$237.09

PnL

+$76.24

Record

53%

172-152 (324)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$1,192.73

Value

$85.1

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$5.84

Value

$82.42

PnL

+$84.12

Record

73%

13376-5006 (18382)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$45.99

Value

$39.42

PnL

-$6.57

Record

18%

4199-19790 (23989)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.13

Value

$37.29

PnL

+$2.16

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$129.94

Value

$17.83

PnL

-$112.11

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$34.83

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$16.83

Record

43%

3085-4124 (7209)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$343.53

Value

$13.02

PnL

-$175.51

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

$90.5

Value

$12.47

PnL

-$69.71

Record

63%

710-409 (1119)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Invested

$40.21

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$32.56

Record

69%

504-222 (726)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$5.98

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$3.48

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$8.32

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$3.04

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 20 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.2%

4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1809.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

1909.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.