Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Hilal Saudi Club?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 2.7¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 7

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 14%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares9,205

Combined PnL+$6.8K

No1 trader

Total Value$230.13

Total Shares7,306

Combined PnL$-5.6K

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

68h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 21.6¢	$1.1K	$4.9K	+$3.8K	83% 89-18 (107)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 20¢	$666.59	$3.2K	+$2.6K	— 6-0 (6)
WH whosay	Yesavg 40.4¢	$329.2	$788.54	+$459.34	56% 1154-894 (2048)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 80.1¢	$5.9K	$230.13	$-5.6K	51% 26264-24900 (51164)
RO roscoff<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$7.8	$12.59	+$4.79	50% 174-171 (345)
DI dips.<$100	Yesavg 97.1¢	$9.71	$9.69	+$0	47% 10752-12293 (23045)
donube<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$2.5	$4.84	+$2.34	61% 878-557 (1435)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$1,084.16

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

83%

89-18 (107)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$666.59

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

—

6-0 (6)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$329.2

Value

$788.54

PnL

+$459.34

Record

56%

1154-894 (2048)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$5,851.49

Value

$230.13

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

51%

26264-24900 (51164)

roscoff<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.8

Value

$12.59

PnL

+$4.79

Record

50%

174-171 (345)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.71

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

10752-12293 (23045)

donube<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$2.34

Record

61%

878-557 (1435)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

68h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.9%

2.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2478.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

2578.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.