Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Hilal Saudi Club?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 4.9¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 7

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 4.9¢

-94% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares9,056

Combined PnL+$6.6K

No3 traders

Total Value$842.81

Total Shares7,820

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 19.3¢	$944.2	$4.6K	+$3.7K	83% 81-17 (98)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 20¢	$666.59	$3.1K	+$2.5K	— 3-0 (3)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 80.1¢	$5.9K	$787.5	$-5.1K	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
WH whosay	Yesavg 40.4¢	$329.2	$768.19	+$438.99	56% 1134-882 (2016)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 79.6¢	$268.51	$36.28	-$232.22	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 28.2¢	$49.91	$19.03	-$30.89	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
RO roscoff<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$7.8	$12.27	+$4.47	52% 173-159 (332)
DI dips.<$100	Yesavg 97.1¢	$9.71	$9.44	-$0.27	47% 10348-11772 (22120)
morito181<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$2.5	$4.85	+$1.95	61% 858-552 (1410)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$944.2

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$666.59

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

—

3-0 (3)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$5,851.87

Value

$787.5

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$329.2

Value

$768.19

PnL

+$438.99

Record

56%

1134-882 (2016)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$268.51

Value

$36.28

PnL

-$232.22

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$49.91

Value

$19.03

PnL

-$30.89

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

roscoff<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.8

Value

$12.27

PnL

+$4.47

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.71

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$0.27

Record

47%

10348-11772 (22120)

morito181<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$1.95

Record

61%

858-552 (1410)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.1%

4.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1532.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

1632.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.