Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Hilal Saudi Club?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 0.5¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 14%
$9.5K
$1.3K
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
99h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121 | Yesavg 21.6¢ | $1.1K | $4.9K | +$3.9K | 83% 89-18 (107) |
 bot-rapin | Yesavg 28¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$2.6K | — 6-0 (6) |
WH whosay | Yesavg 40.4¢ | $329.2 | $775.92 | +$469.52 | 56% 1164-901 (2065) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 80.1¢ | $5.9K | $140.91 | $-5.7K | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
RO roscoff<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $7.8 | $12.75 | +$4.95 | 50% 175-172 (347) |
 dips.<$100 | Yesavg 97.1¢ | $9.71 | $9.53 | +$0.07 | 47% 11022-12642 (23664) |
 pIebe<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $4.91 | +$2.41 | 61% 881-559 (1440) |
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121Invested
$1,084.16
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$3.9K
Record
83%
89-18 (107)
bot-rapinInvested
$3,726.72
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
—
6-0 (6)
Invested
$329.2
Value
$775.92
PnL
+$469.52
Record
56%
1164-901 (2065)
Invested
$5,851.82
Value
$140.91
PnL
$-5.7K
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$12.75
PnL
+$4.95
Record
50%
175-172 (347)
dips.<$100Invested
$9.71
Value
$9.53
PnL
+$0.07
Record
47%
11022-12642 (23664)
pIebe<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
$4.91
PnL
+$2.41
Record
61%
881-559 (1440)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.