Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-11-05?

19 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 98¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 5

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$24.1K

Combined PnL

$4.8K

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 98.3¢

+29% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$23.8K

Total Shares24,058

Combined PnL+$6.9K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$351.11

Total Shares9,323

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 95.8¢	$6.1K	$5.6K	+$151.99	60% 911-595 (1506)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 79.6¢	$3.5K	$4.3K	+$814.81	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 79.2¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$583.82	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 10.7¢	$525	$2.9K	+$3.4K	47% 1690-1872 (3562)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 76.3¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$479.24	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
morito181	Noavg 96.5¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$46.22	61% 860-552 (1412)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 55.8¢	$3.0K	$866.96	+$1.2K	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 88.7¢	$786.57	$662.73	+$73.13	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
xxNyx	Noavg 96¢	$959.99	$457.14	+$30.49	82% 1801-403 (2204)
ME merod	Noavg 93.4¢	$556.89	$179.16	+$3.74	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 15.5¢	$401.08	$101	-$308.35	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 34.9¢	$841.42	$93.91	-$749.73	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 46.5¢	$1.0K	$84.41	-$921.28	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
DI dips.<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$62.59	$84.37	+$21.78	47% 10359-11793 (22152)
KO korda77	Noavg 92.3¢	$472.58	$77.33	+$5.71	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 79.4¢	$280.44	$70.43	+$14.37	39% 1055-1660 (2715)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 76.3¢	$357.49	$64.92	+$11.23	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 62.2¢	$310.25	$63.47	+$23.9	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$10.2	$46.8	+$36.6	20% 2590-10277 (12867)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 85.8¢	$200.86	$33.4	+$4.65	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 66.1¢	$332.56	$23.15	+$7.8	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 94.2¢	$361.39	$18.93	+$1.04	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$181.01	$11.87	-$169.13	63% 712-413 (1125)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$7.65	$10.09	+$15.94	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$4.19	$4.25	+$0.06	39% 5666-8726 (14392)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$6,110.49

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$151.99

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

cigarettes

Invested

$3,502.96

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$814.81

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$2,801.73

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$583.82

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$525

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$2,459.67

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$479.24

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

morito181

Invested

$2,604.79

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$46.22

Record

61%

860-552 (1412)

e46m3

Invested

$3,041.91

Value

$866.96

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$786.57

Value

$662.73

PnL

+$73.13

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

xxNyx

Invested

$959.99

Value

$457.14

PnL

+$30.49

Record

82%

1801-403 (2204)

merod

Invested

$556.89

Value

$179.16

PnL

+$3.74

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$401.08

Value

$101

PnL

-$308.35

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$841.42

Value

$93.91

PnL

-$749.73

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,005.69

Value

$84.41

PnL

-$921.28

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

dips.<$100

Invested

$62.59

Value

$84.37

PnL

+$21.78

Record

47%

10359-11793 (22152)

korda77

Invested

$472.58

Value

$77.33

PnL

+$5.71

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$280.44

Value

$70.43

PnL

+$14.37

Record

39%

1055-1660 (2715)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$357.49

Value

$64.92

PnL

+$11.23

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$310.25

Value

$63.47

PnL

+$23.9

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.2

Value

$46.8

PnL

+$36.6

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$200.86

Value

$33.4

PnL

+$4.65

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$332.56

Value

$23.15

PnL

+$7.8

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$361.39

Value

$18.93

PnL

+$1.04

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

Burkilota1CTR

Yes

Invested

$181.01

Value

$11.87

PnL

-$169.13

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.65

Value

$10.09

PnL

+$15.94

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$4.19

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.06

Record

39%

5666-8726 (14392)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.