Will Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club end in a draw?

7 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 97¢ · $61K held · ends Nov 5

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$61.1K

Combined PnL

$10.3K

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 97¢

+56% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 32 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$58.2K

Total Shares61,513

Combined PnL+$22.8K

No25 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares47,861

Combined PnL$-12.4K

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

21% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 25

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dips.	Yesavg 82.7¢	$23.0K	$26.2K	+$3.2K	47% 10355-11792 (22147)
shineforever	Yesavg 39.1¢	$4.7K	$11.9K	+$7.2K	58% 83-61 (144)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 37¢	$4.2K	$10.7K	+$6.5K	83% 81-17 (98)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 68.8¢	$9.6K	$4.6K	+$3.9K	60% 911-595 (1506)
BT btna	Yesavg 40.1¢	$1.4K	$3.2K	+$1.9K	71% 42-17 (59)
xxNyx	Yesavg 94.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$9.87	82% 1800-403 (2203)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 15.9¢	$2.5K	$1.0K	$-1.5K	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
PU purplegattoCTR	Noavg 56.6¢	$5.0K	$517.49	$-4.5K	49% 6203-6345 (12548)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR	Noavg 2.1¢	$105.24	$183.28	+$1.0K	47% 1688-1871 (3559)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 25.6¢	$1.2K	$183.04	-$436.56	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
BA BayupatiCTR	Noavg 62.2¢	$1.9K	$176.64	$-1.8K	49% 254-267 (521)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 60.5¢	$1.6K	$147.39	$-1.4K	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
morito181	Yesavg 95.9¢	$144.59	$146.25	+$1.66	61% 860-552 (1412)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 23.7¢	$690.48	$135.44	-$415.85	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 70¢	$1.1K	$93.32	$-1.0K	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 35¢	$1.0K	$87.69	-$917.91	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 75¢	$1.1K	$87	$-1.0K	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
E4 e46m3ARB<$100	Noavg 5.6¢	$322.63	$71.39	+$974.84	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
└ No leg	Noavg 5.6¢	$44.57	$46.14	+$935.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.8¢	$5.83	$25.25	+$39.46
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 5.1¢	$40.38	$45.77	+$5.39	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$42	$34.8	-$7.2	20% 2587-10256 (12843)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR	Noavg 13.8¢	$147.32	$28.69	-$39.39	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 38.4¢	$181.01	$22.64	-$158.37	63% 712-413 (1125)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 11.7¢	$97.43	$13.92	-$39	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$84.72	$10.74	-$31.95	40% 1048-1577 (2625)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR	Noavg 26¢	$197.33	$5.74	-$43.88	39% 1054-1655 (2709)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$22,986.59

Value

$26.2K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

47%

10355-11792 (22147)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$4,717.03

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$7.2K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$4,166.1

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$9,602.89

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

btna

Yes

Invested

$1,364.69

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$1,408.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$9.87

Record

82%

1800-403 (2203)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$2,541.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

purplegattoCTR

Invested

$5,046.44

Value

$517.49

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

49%

6203-6345 (12548)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR

Invested

$105.24

Value

$183.28

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$1,169.16

Value

$183.04

PnL

-$436.56

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

BayupatiCTR

Invested

$1,892.8

Value

$176.64

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

49%

254-267 (521)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,554.53

Value

$147.39

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$144.59

Value

$146.25

PnL

+$1.66

Record

61%

860-552 (1412)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$690.48

Value

$135.44

PnL

-$415.85

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,126.25

Value

$93.32

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$1,020.37

Value

$87.69

PnL

-$917.91

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,125

Value

$87

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

e46m3ARB<$100

Invested

$322.63

Value

$71.39

PnL

+$974.84

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

Both legs:

No$44.575.6¢+$935.38

Yes$5.8321.8¢+$39.46

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$40.38

Value

$45.77

PnL

+$5.39

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$34.8

PnL

-$7.2

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR

Invested

$147.32

Value

$28.69

PnL

-$39.39

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$181.01

Value

$22.64

PnL

-$158.37

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$97.43

Value

$13.92

PnL

-$39

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$84.72

Value

$10.74

PnL

-$31.95

Record

40%

1048-1577 (2625)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR

Invested

$197.33

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$43.88

Record

39%

1054-1655 (2709)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 32 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

21% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 25

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.