Solana Up or Down - November 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (73%) · Down at 100¢ · $168 held · ended Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

Total Value

$167.56

Combined PnL

-$1.39

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$154.98

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$2

Up3 traders

Total Value$12.58

Total Shares35

Combined PnL-$3.39

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
pspspsps5	Downavg 89.9¢	$109.38	$106.93	-$2.45	45% 40271-48253 (88524)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$7.2	$9.75	+$2.55	56% 8929-6991 (15920)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$11.7	$9.45	-$2.25	48% 6777-7423 (14200)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 57.4¢	$17.73	$9.12	+$0.92	65% 130517-70309 (200826)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 88.7¢	$10.65	$8.52	-$2.13	66% 130853-67700 (198553)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 94.4¢	$7.63	$7.36	-$0.27	61% 98777-62719 (161496)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 54¢	$5	$5.13	+$0.14	65% 114739-61779 (176518)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 40¢	$2	$4.98	+$2.97	51% 10700-10150 (20850)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 51¢	$2.93	$3.19	+$0.26	56% 60702-47212 (107914)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 15.8¢	$2.84	$2.07	-$0.77	51% 12277-11765 (24042)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$1.43	$1.06	-$0.37	49% 81148-84583 (165731)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$109.38

Value

$106.93

PnL

-$2.45

Record

45%

40271-48253 (88524)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$7.2

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$2.55

Record

56%

8929-6991 (15920)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$2.25

Record

48%

6777-7423 (14200)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$17.73

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$0.92

Record

65%

130517-70309 (200826)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$10.65

Value

$8.52

PnL

-$2.13

Record

66%

130853-67700 (198553)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$7.63

Value

$7.36

PnL

-$0.27

Record

61%

98777-62719 (161496)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$0.14

Record

65%

114739-61779 (176518)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$2.97

Record

51%

10700-10150 (20850)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$0.26

Record

56%

60702-47212 (107914)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$2.84

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$0.77

Record

51%

12277-11765 (24042)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.43

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$0.37

Record

49%

81148-84583 (165731)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.