Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Down 50%
$310.36
-$257.2
Smart Money Signal
7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Downavg 38.7¢ | $201.57 | — | -$201.57 | 51% 10412-9893 (20305) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 66.8¢ | $147.5 | $146.58 | -$0.92 | 51% 11991-11459 (23450) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 71.1¢ | $43.64 | $45.07 | +$1.43 | 45% 40028-47949 (87977) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 64.7¢ | $33.24 | $39.65 | +$6.41 | 49% 80875-84321 (165196) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 62.2¢ | $34.42 | $35.1 | +$0.67 | 47% 6449-7132 (13581) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.1¢ | $21.93 | — | -$21.93 | 65% 114511-61547 (176058) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $24.52 | $22.83 | -$1.69 | 66% 130543-67485 (198028) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 53.7¢ | $14.66 | $11 | -$2.48 | 65% 130132-70051 (200183) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $7.1 | $10.14 | +$3.04 | 55% 51597-42791 (94388) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.7¢ | $2.04 | — | -$2.04 | 61% 98514-62493 (161007) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.2¢ | $93.22 | — | -$3.22 | 56% 8722-6811 (15533) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 35.8¢ | $26.65 | — | -$26.65 | 56% 77327-59680 (137007) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 41.7¢ | $4.58 | — | -$4.58 | 58% 63200-46432 (109632) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.6¢ | $3.66 | — | -$3.66 | 63% 42374-25068 (67442) |
Invested
$201.57
Value
—
PnL
-$201.57
Record
51%
10412-9893 (20305)
Invested
$147.5
Value
$146.58
PnL
-$0.92
Record
51%
11991-11459 (23450)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$43.64
Value
$45.07
PnL
+$1.43
Record
45%
40028-47949 (87977)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$33.24
Value
$39.65
PnL
+$6.41
Record
49%
80875-84321 (165196)
Invested
$34.42
Value
$35.1
PnL
+$0.67
Record
47%
6449-7132 (13581)
Invested
$21.93
Value
—
PnL
-$21.93
Record
65%
114511-61547 (176058)
Invested
$24.52
Value
$22.83
PnL
-$1.69
Record
66%
130543-67485 (198028)
Invested
$14.66
Value
$11
PnL
-$2.48
Record
65%
130132-70051 (200183)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.1
Value
$10.14
PnL
+$3.04
Record
55%
51597-42791 (94388)
Invested
$2.04
Value
—
PnL
-$2.04
Record
61%
98514-62493 (161007)
Invested
$93.22
Value
—
PnL
-$3.22
Record
56%
8722-6811 (15533)
Invested
$26.65
Value
—
PnL
-$26.65
Record
56%
77327-59680 (137007)
Invested
$4.58
Value
—
PnL
-$4.58
Record
58%
63200-46432 (109632)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.66
Value
—
PnL
-$3.66
Record
63%
42374-25068 (67442)